Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 27 Jan 2025 by Alexandre Schwartsman, Cristina Pinotti and Diego Brandao

OVERVIEW

OSTENSIBLE FRAILTY 

Still reeling from the impact of the emergency brain surgery he underwent in December to drain a hematoma caused by a fall in October, Lula, at 79, has confided to aides that he may lack the health to run in the 2026 election. What was visible to external observers has now become widely discussed in the press, further distorting the once-flattering label of "old warrior." As is well-known, in the jungle, a wounded lion is a feast for hyenas. Politics is not much different, and if this situation persists, we can expect unusual decisions and behaviors from the president in the next two years, alongside increasingly audacious power struggles in the political arena.

As the absolute leader of the Workers’ Party (PT) since its founding, Lula has discouraged the rise of prominent new figures within the party, reducing the PT's chances for 2026. Current ministers such as Chief of Staff Rui Costa, Education Minister Camilo Santana, and Finance Minister Fernando Haddad are among the most probable successors, despite sharing little in common with the image of a poor, uneducated Northeastern Brazilian who skillfully leverages these characteristics to resonate with the underprivileged.

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