Tajikistan breaks record with massive CA surplus

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA - In Brief 27 Apr 2026 by Ivan Tchakarov
As I indicated earlier, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, arguably the two most interesting countries from an analytical perspective as far as the external sector is concerned, lagged with reporting full 2025 BoP data, but the former has now announced it. Very meaningfully, Tajikistan has posted its 6th consecutive annual CA surplus last year. Thus long gone are the times when the market used to fret about about Dushanbe’s ability to meet its external obligations. These fears have been unduly plagued by earlier assessments of default risk. For example, in 2020 the WB stated that in Tajikistan “the risk of debt default is high.” In 2023, the WB re-affirmed its judgment, arguing that “Tajikistan is still at high risk of debt distress." I have consistently disagreed with such assessments here and here. The broader improvement of the external position has coincided with the start of the 2027 Eurobond repayment. Tajikistan commences (in 2025) paying the six semi-annual principal payments of US$83 million on the country's only 2027 Eurobond issuance. These will last until Sep 2027. CA surplus soared to 16.5 percent of GDP last year. The CA surplus improved to 16.5 percent of GDP in 2025 from 6.5 percent of GDP in 2024. Tajikistan thus posted its 6th consecutive external surplus over 2020-2026. This favorable performance has been clearly driven by much improved surpluses on the primary and secondary income balances since 2020, chiefly as a result of more robust net remittance flows from Russia (Graphs 1 and 2). The 4Q25 data has only confirmed this trend as remittances, which are very well approximated by the sum of primary and secondary income balances, were able to offset the larg...

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