The force awakens

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 27 Oct 2025 by Alexandre Schwartsman, Cristina Pinotti and Diego Brandao

The decline in the trade surplus since last year has been driven by rising imports, in line with the expansion of domestic demand. On the export side, however, relevant shifts have been observed among different trading partners. China has lost ground due to falling prices of the main commodities exported to the country. Regarding the United States, the impact of tariffs on export values has been significant. So far, however, these losses have been partially offset by the increase in exports to other markets. Nonetheless, strong domestic demand continues to reduce the trade surplus and, therefore, to widen the current account deficit.

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