The last polls

CHILE - In Brief 03 Nov 2025 by Robert Funk

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It does not feel like electoral season in Chile. Historically, elections saw the country’s streets plastered (or littered) with political advertising. But the increasing domination of social media in politics has translated into much less money being spent on street signage. At the same time, many voters are disenchanted with their options, at least at the presidential level. New election laws make voting mandatory, but many will head to the polls without enthusiasm, more likely to vote against a candidate than for them. The blackout period for publishing public opinion polls began last Saturday at midnight. Most polling firms published their final results a day or two prior to the blackout. The most daring prediction came from La Cosa Nostra, a small firm run by an academic, Alberto Mayol, who has harboured political ambitions in the past and was expelled from the Frente Amplio due to his differences with party leaders. La Cosa Nostra places all three candidates of the right in a statistical tie, with Jeannette Jara way ahead at 34%. Other polls tend to show the government’s candidate in the 25-30% range she’s been registering for the last few months. Criteria, for example, has Jeannette Jara at 27%, José Antonio Kast at 24% and Johannes Kaiser at 15%, slightly overtaking Evelyn Matthei who obtained 14%. In a runoff, Criteria predicted that Kast would win over Jara by almost 20 points, 51 to 33 percent. Black and White’s final public poll, published last Friday, has Jara at 30%, followed by Kast at 23% and Kaiser in third place at 20%. Data Influye also places Jara in first place at 27%, with Kast at 20% and Kaiser at 13%, slightly over Matthei’s 11%. Panel Ciudadano-...