TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia - What happened in Gyumri?
While the world is justifiably focused on US tariffs, I ponder on the much more esoteric, but no less exciting topic of regional elections in Armenia. Last week the second-largest city in the country, Gyumri, held municipal elections that delivered a result that may have very important consequences for the political landscape. The ruling Civil Contract party and four opposition groups made it to the City Council, but the distribution of votes is such that the latter has a very good chance to elect a mayor of its own. That would represent a key election loss for the Civil Contract and, in addition, an emotional disappointment for Pashinyan himself, given that it was exactly Gyumri where his 2018 Armenian Revolution started, which carried him to the premiership in Yerevan.
However, things are not that simple. Some of the leaders of the opposition who made it to the City Council have old hatchets to bury. I delve into some of the gory details of local clannishness that may make it difficult for the diverse opposition groups to unite. However, Gyumri could serve as a catalyst for political change throughout the country as I emphasize that this depends largely on the opposition and their priorities, whether driven by personal interests and ambition, or a genuine desire to challenge the authorities.
The Gyumri election results present a unique opportunity for the opposition and, in my view, it understands that it must unite in order to inflict a wound on Pashinyan and bolster its chances in next year's parliamentary elections. If true, this will create a fraught domestic political backdrop that will exist in Armenia all the way to 2026. With the elections over in neighboring Azerbaijan and Georgia, it will be Armenia that will now carry the headlines of political uncertainty in the South Caucasus. While I had anticipated a post-2026 environment with a much wider distribution of risk scenarios (given the significant probability that political uncertainty joins macroeconomic vulnerability after the 2026 parliamentary elections), 2025 may mark an earlier beginning of these challenges.
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