Politics: Trump escalates threats against Mexico, including direct intervention against cartels
Mexico is closely and apprehensively watching developments in Washington given U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to impose a 25% tariff on Mexican exports to the United States and talk of possible intervention against drug cartels. At the last minute, the tariff threat was averted, for 30 days at least, as a result of a phone call between Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, in which the latter agreed to deploy 10,000 National Guardsmen along the county’s northern border to prevent fentanyl trafficking and strengthen immigration controls. The agreement is shaky. Trump’s information to the American people didn’t mention part of his end of the bargain, namely to investigate the massive flow of high caliber weapons from the United States to Mexico that end up in the hands of the cartels.
Sheinbaum, although in conciliation mode and trying to calm outrage on the home front by urging Mexicans to not jump to hasty conclusions, would not budge on the issues of Mexican sovereignty and the possibility of any form of U.S. intervention. She openly and forcefully rejected Washington’s characterization of the Mexican government as a “narco government”, that is, a government in alliance with drug cartels that threatens U.S. security and public health.
While the message from Mexico City is collaboration and cooperation, the possibility of delivering results, and much less in a month’s time, will be very difficult. Fentanyl is a very potent drug; it is easy to produce and transport, and minuscule quantities yield thousands of pills. Eliminating the drug cartels is also a daunting challenge. While Trump is eager to appease his base, who blame Mexico for the migratory flows and drug trafficking, the reality of the situation is much more complex, given the cartels’ geographic extension, complexity, indirect ties with financial institutions, and links with some Morena politicians. Indeed, Sheinbaum is at a crossroads and will have to choose between attending to Trump and his demands or protecting Morena and avoiding internal schisms within the party. Meanwhile, the clock is ticking on the 30-day deadline.
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