Economics: US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs—implications for Mexico
The recent imposition of 15% across-the-board tariffs by President Trump in response to the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling invalidating prior specific tariffs does not affect Mexico as products entering under the USMCA remain exempt, as they previously were from reciprocal tariffs. Consequently, Mexico's weighted average tariff remains essentially unchanged, fluctuating between 4% and 6% depending on shifts in the composition of exported products. The 15% tariffs largely restore most countries to tariff levels similar to those before the ruling, while rates for China and India are reduced modestly. As a result, no significant change in Mexico's relative competitiveness is anticipated.
It is worth noting that Mexico's export performance in 2025 was particularly positive. The country maintained its position as the leading exporter to the United States, achieving a record $534.9 billion in exports—6% higher than in 2024—and accounting for approximately 16% of total U.S. imports. This report examines the implications of the U.S. Supreme Court ruling and the administration's response, alongside the recent trends in Mexican exports to the United States across key sectors.
Regarding the week's economic indicators, annual consumer inflation for the first fortnight of February 2026 rose to 3.92%, an increase of 10 basis points from the previous fortnight (3.82%). This uptick was driven by a substantial rise in non-core inflation (58 basis points), while core inflation edged down slightly (-4 basis points).
In addition, Mexico's current account in the balance of payments recorded a deficit of $8.2 billion in 2025, a marked improvement from the $16.696 billion deficit in the prior year. This narrowing stemmed primarily from a substantial increase in the non-oil goods surplus. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Mexico reached $40.871 billion in 2025, representing a 7.7% increase over the previous year. Despite this strong annual performance, FDI declined in absolute terms by approximately $5 billion in the final quarter of 2025. On the employment front, Mexico's employed population grew by 0.4% YoY in January 2026, according to ENOE data. This modest expansion continues the weakness observed in 2025, when average annual growth stood at 0.7%.
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