Politics: Violence and homicides—how are they measured and how much progress has been made?
Public security is the number one issue for most Mexicans, and addressing, improving and resolving this issue is of key importance for the current presidential administration. In fact, it is the policy question in which President Sheinbaum has most clearly—although not explicitly—differentiated herself from Lopez Obrador’s very deficient “hugs not bullets” strategy. She has done so with beefed-up efforts and with heavyweight Minister of Security and Citizen Protection Omar Garcia Harfuch at the helm. In addition to the political fallout, crime—both violent crimes as well as robberies, extortion, and massive fuel theft, coupled with still widespread impunity—harms the economy of the regions affected and hinders growth in investment.
The government is waging a constant media offensive, boasting significant progress in the fight against high-profile crimes, especially homicides, but also femicides, kidnappings, extortion, and violent robberies. The claim is that there has been a significant decrease in both the daily average number of intentional homicides in the past year (-27%) and indeed, since AMLO took office in 2018 (-30%). But a closer examination indicates that the panorama may not be as encouraging as it may appear, and the crime rates might not be subsiding despite government efforts.
Part of the problem is the statistical methodology employed, with homicides classified in two categories (intentional and negligent), and with an additional classification of “violent” deaths defined as “other crimes against life” (used when public prosecutors’ offices, which are often deficient on the state level, lack sufficient forensic evidence or have botched the investigation to determine whether such killings are intentional). Based on evidence from state prosecutors’ offices, intentional homicides are on the decline—down 30%—while “other crimes against life” are on the rise—with a 126% increase. However, the results vary widely between states.
What is needed is for the National Public Security System (SNSP) to evaluate, review, and standardize the methods of classification and verification of state information through agreements with the respective governments. This could resolve doubts as to the validity of government claims that major progress is being made in addressing the problem of public insecurity, thereby allowing the appropriate political, economic, and logistical conclusions to be drawn, with the goal of improving efforts in the field.
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