Why Maduro’s fall is good news in Kyiv

UKRAINE - In Brief 06 Jan 2026 by Dmytro Boyarchuk

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From a bird’s-eye view, the U.S. operation in Venezuela resembles what Russia attempted to do in Ukraine in 2022—and failed. Yet despite this parallel, the developments are viewed largely positively in Ukraine. Ukrainians have learned the hard way what real politics looks like, and we have no illusions about the place of democratic values in today’s world. We are fully aware that Donald Trump’s actions in Venezuela, along with U.S. officials’ statements about “our hemisphere,” indirectly legitimize Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Such signals might have mattered back in 2022. But in 2026, after the U.S. administration has done more than enough to push Ukraine toward surrender, gradually pull back from Europe, and send clear signals that there will be no return to the post–World War II order, the Venezuela operation looks less like a dramatic game-changer and more like a natural continuation of broader global trends. So why are developments in Venezuela seen positively in Kyiv? Firstly, they offer a stark demonstration of Russia’s weakening position. The rapid operation to arrest Nicolás Maduro—completed in roughly three hours—showed the United States’ ability to execute high-level military action, in sharp contrast to Russia’s repeated operational failures. It also reinforced a broader reality: Russia, bogged down in Ukraine and stretched across multiple fronts, is increasingly unable to support its allies. It abandoned Assad in Syria, has limited capacity to help the Iranian regime, and proved ineffective in defending Maduro. This is a serious blow to the Kremlin’s reputation as a global actor. In response, Vladimir Putin is likely to try to manage the reputation...