Will new Finance Minister Fayval Williams's budget turn around the JLP’s political fortunes?

JAMAICA / BAHAMAS - Report 10 Mar 2025 by Keith Collister

In her budget speech tomorrow afternoon, March 11, new Finance Minister Fayval Williams has the very difficult job of crafting an election-winning budget within the confines of Jamaica’s fiscal rules and recent weak economic performance. So far, she has strongly signaled that she will resist election-year pressures, which is broadly supported when one reviews Jamaica’s estimates of expenditure. However, while the government still appears to be on track to meet its overall debt-to-GDP target of 60% by FY 2027/28 (March 2028), this year, multiple increased downside risks are coinciding with the elimination of the normal projected fiscal surplus cushion of 0.3% of GDP, now only J$780.3 million (more likely zero or really negative), in the new budget. Nevertheless, on the other hand, with the major exception of growth, Jamaica’s macro numbers have never been this strong in memory.

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