ARGENTINA
Analysts
Domingo Cavallo
Former Economy Minister and Central Bank President
Joaquin Cottani
Former Economy SecretaryDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
U.S. support buys time, not permanent stability, for Argentina
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 13 Oct 2025
Despite the U.S. Treasury’s recent show of support, Argentina’s markets remain uneasy. The mere announcement two weeks ago that Washington was willing to offer financial assistance did little to restore confidence. After a brief period of calm, both the exchange rate and country risk climbed agai...
Market calm returns to Argentina after President Trump and US Secretary Bessent pledge strong support
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 24 Sep 2025
Last week, Argentina’s economy faced intense pressure as the nominal exchange rate hit the ceiling of its exchange band and country risk surged to 1,450 basis points. Yet, the government, led by President Javier Milei and Economy Minister Luis "Toto" Caputo, pulled off two bold moves that swiftly...
Government defeat in Buenos Aires Province: Political and economic implications
ARGENTINA · Report · 12 Sep 2025
The ruling coalition suffered a 13-point loss in Buenos Aires Province, a stronghold of Peronism. The markets reacted sharply: equities fell up to 25%, bonds weakened, and country risk surpassed 1,000 basis points. Inflation stabilization has come at the cost of recessionary pressures, weak reser...
Questions I've been frequently asked since my last report
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 28 Aug 2025
Here are my answers to the main questions market participants have been asking me as the midterm election approaches. What do the polls say about President Milei's chance of winning the midterm election? Current polls position Javier Milei's La Libertad Avanza (LLA) as the favorite for the Octobe...
A general view of the economy ahead of the midterm elections—Part II: External issues
ARGENTINA · Report · 05 Aug 2025
This report completes the analysis begun in our July 22, 2025 report regarding Argentina’s main economic and financial issues 19 months into the Milei administration and three months before a midterm election that will critically influence what the administration can accomplish for the remainder ...
A general view of the economy ahead of the midterm elections—Part I: Domestic issues
ARGENTINA · Report · 22 Jul 2025
This report and the next will examine where Argentina stands economically and financially nineteen months into the Milei administration and three months before a midterm election that will critically influence what the administration will be able to do for the rest of its mandate. The analysis is...
Argentina ordered to surrender its 51% stake in YPF
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 01 Jul 2025
Yesterday, Judge Loretta Preska from the Southern District Court of NY ordered the Government of Argentina to surrender the 51% stake it has in YPF, the national oil company, to partially satisfy a $16.1 billion court judgement issued in 2023 and whose main beneficiary is Burford Capital. The gov...
As inflation breaks the 2% psychological mark, the government explains how it will accumulate reserves without losing control of the money supply
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 13 Jun 2025
This week ended on two positive notes. Yesterday, INDEC reported that May inflation was 1.5% m/m, down from 3.7% in March and 2.8% in April. The low print benefited from a reduction (-2.7%) in seasonal prices and underadjustment (1.3%) of regulated prices. However, although core inflation (2.2%) ...
The search for "endogenous" dollars
ARGENTINA · Report · 10 Jun 2025
Argentina is a bi-monetary economy not because the peso and the dollar circulate with equal ease but because, to protect themselves against inflation, Argentineans have traditionally invested a large percentage of their wealth portfolios in US dollar instruments, including cash held in dollars th...