CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA
Analyst
Ivan Tchakarov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistRecent Country Insights
Topic of the week: May 2026 CCA Slide deck - fresh views reflecting Iran developments
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 14 May 2026
This is a mid-quarter edition of the quarterly slide deck for the Caucasus and Central Asia, comprising a 209-slide detailed description of the economic status quo in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. It covers various topics, including growth, economic structur...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Iran shock reshapes CCA macro dynamics
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 08 May 2026
The Iran crisis has brought to the fore two relevant cross-cutting themes in the CCA related to inflation (monetary policy) and exchange rates. Regarding inflation and monetary policy, early in the crisis I constructed a simple comparative framework (vulnerability index) that aimed to capture ...
Tajikistan breaks record with massive CA surplus
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 27 Apr 2026
As I indicated earlier, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, arguably the two most interesting countries from an analytical perspective as far as the external sector is concerned, lagged with reporting full 2025 BoP data, but the former has now announced it. Very meaningfully, Tajikistan has posted its 6th...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Inside the seductive complexity of Armenia's election math
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 24 Apr 2026
Two fresh polls were released in Armenia over the past two weeks, which allows me to tighten up my predictions about how the elections will evolve in about a month's time. The polls are valuable as it has been now two months since the previous batch of surveys were produced, so that the new resul...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia set to overtake Azerbaijan in per capita GDP this year
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 17 Apr 2026
Azerbaijan may have claimed military victory vis-a-vis Armenia, but the war on the economic front appears to have evolved along different lines as demonstrated by probably my favorite exercises in the CIS space, which encompasses the target Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) region. Based on the jus...
Hungary's election-a few lessons for Armenia
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 13 Apr 2026
The erosion of Viktor Orbán’s long-standing political dominance in Hungary, resulting in his election loss, can offer a couple of genuinely important lessons for Armenian observers. They are particularly relevant given my mathematical analysis of the election complexities of the Armenian election...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Diverging trends in 2025 CA positions
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 10 Apr 2026
Four countries, including Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Uzbekistan reported 4Q25 and full-year BoP data over the last week. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, the countries sitting at both extremes of CA positions and, in my view, presenting the most interesting analytical cases, are yet to do that....
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Dancing on a fault line-Armenia heads to the polls
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 02 Apr 2026
With two months to election day, three key opposition centers of gravity have formed that stand reasonable chances of making it through the National Assembly, although, by law, April 23 marks the final day when blocks and coalition may be formally announced. In this piece, I first briefly out...
Topic of the week - 1Q2026 CCA Slide deck
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 27 Mar 2026
The quarterly slide deck for the Caucasus and Central Asia is a 209-slide detailed description of the economic status quo in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan as of the first quarter of the year. It covers various topics, including growth, economic structure, inf...