CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA
Analyst
Ivan Tchakarov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistRecent Country Insights
Kyrgyzstan has yet to convincingly rein in opaque trade flows
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 26 Jun 2026 · 1 response
I must admit that I have a soft spot for Kyrgyzstan's BoP data. It is probably the most exciting set of external flows from an analytical perspective in my CCA region and a treasury trove for drawing conclusions about Bishkek's efforts to clamp down on opaque trade with Russia. The analysis is, o...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Opposition cross-pollination in the South Caucasus—Armenia and Georgia exchanging lessons from the political battlefield
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 25 Jun 2026
Two key events have taken place in the Armenian and Georgian political fields these days. In the former, I see no surprises coming from tomorrow's Constitutional Court decision on the validity of the elections as the Court will rubber stamp Pashinyan's victory. The really interesting debate th...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: The new shade of success? Think Uzbek green!
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 18 Jun 2026 · 1 response
Uzbekistan is Central Asia’s rising heavyweight, and I have discussed its various shades of success, ranging from its improving macro-stability, narrowing twin deficits and rising quality of policy-making to its strengthening demographics and improving health statistics. One particular area that ...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Gas, roses and peppers—Armenia's dilemma
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 12 Jun 2026
"If peppers are spoiling, I'll pay for those peppers. If roses are spoiling, I'll pay for them, too." Pashinyan's agriculture-related tirade become one of the more widely discussed soundbites of the final week of the campaign. That emotionally-charged outburst was tied to the recent restrictions ...
Armenian election results take an odd turn
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 08 Jun 2026
In a rather odd development, the Central Election Commission announced changes in the results previously reported on its website. Trying to explain the changes would only spoil interpretation, so I take the liberty of simply citing CEC Chairman verbatim: "You have all seen the figures published o...
Armenian elections results: first thoughts
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 08 Jun 2026
The CEC has just announced the preliminary results from yesterday's vote (final tally must be submitted by law within 7 days of the election). Here are the key takeaways as I see them: 1. The election was hotly contested in a polarized society. The turnout, at roughly 59%, was higher than the 201...
Upcoming webinar: Armenia elections - outlook and implications
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 02 Jun 2026
Date: 3 Jun 2026 | Time: 10:00 AM EDT Can Nikol Pashinyan retain power after the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh? Can the opposition unite behind a single credible challenger? Could Armenia face another period of instability if the result is disputed? Join us for our live Zoom webinar featuring Globa...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia after an opposition victory—Georgia 2.0?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 29 May 2026
The parliamentary elections on Jun 7th are increasingly being viewed by market participants as tantamount to reaching a fork in the road. A win by Nikol Pashinyan and his Civil Contract party would reinforce the current westward drift and preserve the positive momentum already visible in Armenian...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: London trip notes
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 22 May 2026
I visited clients in London this week to discuss Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, and I briefly summarize my impressions in this report. Countries can be most usefully arranged in three distinctive groups depending on client interest. Most attention was devoted...