ECUADOR
Analyst
Magdalena Barreiro
Former Finance MinisterDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Cautious optimism after the shock
ECUADOR · Report · 21 Feb 2025
The results of the first round of the presidential election came as a shock to many Ecuadorians—especially Noboa, his party, and supporters who, based on the polls, expected a win in this round. Not only was the close vote atypical of a first round (only 22,000 votes separated Noboa from Gonzalez...
Tough prospects for Daniel Noboa
ECUADOR · In Brief · 09 Feb 2025
By 9 pm, February 9th, with 56% of polls having been counted, President Daniel Noboa who started leading the presidential race with 6% over Luisa Gonzalez, is now down to less than 2% of difference. The sample should be pretty stable at this point thus, this difference might continue until tomorr...
Ecuadorians’ despair translates into uncertainty
ECUADOR · Report · 21 Jan 2025 · 1 response
President Daniel Noboa started his term last year with public support over 64%, which by the end of 2024 had fallen to 42%. While his support has taken a deep dive, it is not very different from the numbers President Correa had at the start and end of his terms, but within a much shorter time fra...
Hope due to the partial end of blackouts
ECUADOR · Report · 17 Dec 2024
President Noboa offered to end the electricity blackouts by December 20, to the joy of almost all Ecuadorians, who have endured harsh day-to-day circumstances since last September. However, the six major electricity-consuming corporations, including steel manufacturers, mining companies and Petro...
Free path to the presidency or two nails in a coffin?
ECUADOR · Report · 14 Nov 2024
The Ecuadorian political sky has been darkened by clouds of political abuse instead of clouds bringing desperately needed rain. Vice President Veronica Abad was “suspended” for 150 days by an administrative decision from the Minister of Labor, and the candidacy of Jan Topic, who was coming on ...
From dark to darker
ECUADOR · Forecast · 15 Oct 2024
Our September report was entitled “A dark fourth quarter". That is precisely what we expect for the past quarter, with the problem of blackouts of up to 10 hours for every industrial and household sector and no near-term solution in sight, since rain—the main ally of a slow government—will not be...
A dark fourth quarter, continued
ECUADOR · In Brief · 19 Sep 2024
As a follow up and complement to our monthly report for September, we present here the latest update from the Central Bank to forecast GDP growth this year. The Central Bank has downgraded y/y growth from 1% to 0.9% in view of the unpublished yet results for H1. Although we concur with a lower y/...
A dark fourth quarter
ECUADOR · Report · 18 Sep 2024
One thing that can be said about Daniel Noboa is that he does not procrastinate. In the midst of a severe energy crisis caused by the bad situation of the electricity sector, he sent a bill proposing the re-installation of foreign military bases in Ecuador. The last US military base, located in M...
Political gender violence or attempt at a coup d'état?
ECUADOR · Report · 19 Aug 2024
The political saga between President Daniel Noboa and Vice President Veronica Abad has escalated to mutual accusations of gender-based political violence on the side of Abad and attempts at a coup d’état raised by the official side. The truth of the matter is that Noboa, who has a high probabilit...