ISRAEL
Analyst
Jonathan Katz
Former Chief Economist, Finance Ministry Budget DepartmentRecent Country Insights
Inflation remains elevated but likely to moderate in 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 18 Nov 2024
1. Core inflation pushed higher in October due to higher airfares, a volatile item. 2. We view the fiscal package for 2025 as restrictive and likely to dampen household demand. 3. We expect inflation to moderate in 2025, supportive of monetary easing.
Inflation pressures likely to subside in 2025, supporting rate cuts
ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 Nov 2024
Geopolitics: A ceasefire in North still appears likely, but may have to wait for Trump. The ground operation on both fronts is winding down, although missiles and drones continue to land in the extended North of Israel resulting in some damage and casualties. The imminent threat from a ballistic ...
Inflation in October as expected, core accelerates
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Nov 2024
Inflation in October as expected, core accelerates In October, the CPI rose by 0.5% m/m (according to consensus, we were leaning towards 0.6%), and remained stable at 3.5% y/y. Core inflation (The CPI excluding energy and fresh produce) accelerated to 3.3% y/y from 3.0% last month, mostly due to ...
Strong export growth is shekel supportive
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Nov 2024
Exports surged in recent months. In August-October, industrial exports increased by 15% q/q, with strong growth in sectors identified as mostly defense: Metal products/machinery and transport equipment, but in pharma and chemical products as well. But generally, high-tech exports were up 14%. Imp...
The shekel appreciates on US election results
ISRAEL · Report · 08 Nov 2024
Ceasefires (in Gaza as well as Lebanon) do not appear to be on the immediate horizon. The ground operation on both fronts is winding down, although missiles and drones continue to land in the extended North of Israel, resulting in some damage and casualties. The immediate risk is from Iran, which...
Markets will follow the fiscal approval process closely
ISRAEL · Report · 04 Nov 2024
1. The 4% deficit target has been approved by the cabinet, but the full implementation of adjustments appears unlikely. 2. Optimism regarding a decline in hostilities and a possible ceasefire has supported the long end of the curve, but much will depend on fiscal credibility. 3. Recent econ...
Risk premium declines on optimism regarding a cease-fire, but much will depend on fiscal credibility
ISRAEL · In Brief · 04 Nov 2024
Geopolitics: Israel continues to exchange missile fire with Hezbollah in Lebanon and continues its ground operation. A lower-level war continues in Northern Gaza. Apparently, a cease-fire framework with Hezbollah and Lebanon appears increasingly likely, while the impasse with Hamas continues. The...
MoF releases optimistic GDP forecast in 2025, as basis for tax revenue forecast in the budget
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Oct 2024
The Ministry of Finance expects growth of 4.3 percent in 2025 (0.4 percent in 2024), assuming an end to the fighting at the current intensity by the end of the year, and a gradual recovery in 2025. This forecast is more optimistic than that of the Bank of Israel, 3.8 percent, ours (3.4 percent), ...
Markets reflect optimism regarding Iranian de-escalation
ISRAEL · Report · 28 Oct 2024
1. Likely de-escalation vis-à-vis Iran supported markets on Sunday. 2. Markets will react to the 2025 fiscal framework to be decided upon towards the end of the week, which may be disappointing. 3. Rapid monetary growth on the back of fiscal expansion poses an inflationary threat.