ISRAEL
Analyst
Sani Ziv
UN Economic ConsultantRecent Country Insights
Bank of Israel keeps rate at 4%, policy statement turns slightly more hawkish
ISRAEL · In Brief · 23 Feb 2026
The Bank of Israel kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.0% on February 23. As we wrote yesterday, the decision came as no surprise to us. The Bank outlined the main considerations behind its decision not to lower the policy rate. First, the latest economic data did not justify a third ...
Policy rate likely to remain unchanged today amid resilient activity data, tight labor market and security tensions
ISRAEL · In Brief · 23 Feb 2026
Following the publication of the Bank of Israel’s Monthly Index of Economic Activity and the latest job-vacancy data from the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics, we maintain our assessment that there is a high probability the policy rate will remain unchanged at 4.0% today. The data point to con...
Israel geopolitics and macro - outlook for the week ahead
ISRAEL · In Brief · 20 Feb 2026
Rising war tensions with Iran pressure markets as Gaza peace plan begins to take shape This week was marked by rising tensions with Iran, which translated into growing nervousness in financial markets, ahead of next week’s interest rate decision. Reports of a possible U.S. strike and increased mi...
Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, February 18, 2026
ISRAEL · Report · 18 Feb 2026
Israel’s economy continues the transition from a war economy to a more post-war period with a moderate growth phase. While activity remains expansionary, momentum is easing, and growth is increasingly export-led, with domestic demand still relatively weak. Geopolitical developments remain a key s...
Israel’s GDP numbers: Growth moderates, exports surged in Q4
ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 Feb 2026
The initial estimate for the fourth quarter of 2025 shows that Israel’s GDP grew by 4% (annualized), slowing from an upwardly revised 12.7% in the third quarter (previously reported as 11.1%). The GDP fell sharply in Q2 2025 after the economy shut down for two weeks due to the war. Although activ...
Inflation moderates in January; probability of February rate cut rises
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Feb 2026
Israel’s consumer price index, published yesterday, surprised slightly to the downside, falling by 0.3% in January 2026, compared with our forecast of a 0.2% decline and a 0.1%-0.2% decline in the consensus forecast. As a result, annual inflation eased to 1.8%, its lowest level since June 2021. T...
Israel macro preview: key inflation and growth data ahead
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Feb 2026
Next week finally provides hard data to work with. On Sunday, the Central Bureau of Statistics will publish the January CPI, the first inflation print of 2026. On Monday, it will release the Q4 and full-year 2025 national accounts, which will allow a more comprehensive assessment of how the econo...
Israeli fiscal deficit edges up to 4.9% of GDP in January
ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Feb 2026
The Ministry of Finance reported a fiscal surplus of NIS 16.9 billion ($5.3 billion) in January 2026, with the trailing 12-month deficit increasing to 4.9% of GDP, from 4.7% in December. The budget deficit peaked at 8.5% of GDP in September 2024. Direct taxes surprised on the upside, while indire...
Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, February 9, 2026
ISRAEL · Report · 09 Feb 2026
Israel’s political arena remains highly turbulent, centered on three interlinked fronts: the 2026 state budget, which must be approved by March 31; the military conscription legislation, which remains stalled at the level of legal advisers; and, more recently, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s publicati...