TURKEY
Analysts
Murat Ucer
Former Advisor, Economy Ministry and Central Bank
Atilla Yesilada
Former Director, Egebank Global ResearchDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Waiting for (a bunch of) Godot(s)
TURKEY · Report · 17 May 2026
At home, President Erdogan broadened his war against CHP with the specter of a closure suit against the latter, new probes against city mayors and ongoing recruitments. As the politics author stated in last Sunday’s Weekly, Erdogan is waiting to see how the Iran War (or the Gulf Conflict) ends...
Webinar replay: Iran War and Turkey's macro outlook - What changed?
TURKEY · Report · 15 May 2026
What impact will the war in Iran have on Turkey's economic outlook? Will the conflict create short-term economic pain but potentially lead to long-term gains? What is the trajectory of monetary policy, and how is the CBRT positioning itself? How effectively is President Erdoğan managing the assoc...
Target up, forecast up, band out
TURKEY · Report · 14 May 2026
In today’s much-anticipated Inflation Report, the second of the year, the CBRT raised the interim target to 24% from 16%, the yearend inflation forecast to 26% (from 18%, midpoint) and discontinued the practice of providing a forecast band around its midpoint forecast, the latter because of excep...
Upcoming Webinar - Iran War and Turkey's macro outlook: What changed?
TURKEY · Report · 13 May 2026
Date: 14 May 2026 Time: 10:00 AM Eastern Time What impact will the war in Iran have on Turkey's economic outlook? Will the conflict create short-term economic pain but potentially lead to long-term gains? What is the trajectory of monetary policy, and how is the CBRT positioning itself? How e...
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst
TURKEY · Report · 10 May 2026
In domestic politics, there is not much to write home about. President Erdogan seems to have put all urgent domestic policy issues, such as how to get rid of CHP indefinitely on hold, pending the outcome of the Iran War, to which the politics author stubbornly refers to as the Gulf Crisis. This p...
Near the interim target already
TURKEY · Report · 04 May 2026
Monthly CPI inflation surprised notably to the upside in April, coming in at 4.2%, m/m, compared with the (median) market expectation of around 3.2%, with the 12-month CPI-rate increasing materially by 1.5 pps to 32.4%, from 30.9% in March. Monthly domestic PPI inflation was 3.2% in April, markin...
Early elections, trip notes, etc.
TURKEY · Report · 03 May 2026
Since President Erdogan needs early elections to be eligible for the next presidential race and with only two years left to the deadline for regularly scheduled ones, it is natural that this topic will steadily increase in importance. Despite numerous alleged election dates swirling at the scuttl...
The year of living dangerously
TURKEY · Report · 26 Apr 2026 · 1 response
There is no sign that the Iran War will end anytime soon, with most experts now warning that the Straits of Hormuz may remain shut for months to come. Turkey has managed the spillover from the war adroitly – so far, judging by the success of the strong TL policy and her sticking to a line of stri...
Words vs deeds
TURKEY · Report · 22 Apr 2026
The CBRT/MPC left the policy rate unchanged at 37% at today’s meeting, broadly in line with the consensus. The statement notes that the “underlying trend of inflation declined in March” but that “leading indicators suggest a slight increase” in April. It also states that the effects of geopolitic...