TURKEY
Analysts
Murat Ucer
Former Advisor, Economy Ministry and Central Bank
Atilla Yesilada
Former Director, Egebank Global ResearchDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
The year of our regression
TURKEY · Report · 05 Apr 2026
The year 2026 is likely to go down in the annals of history as “the Year of Our Regression”, when the Iran War first halted and then began to reverse all progress made in healing the wounds of the Covid-19 pandemic. The war is unlikely to end before June or thereabouts, the politics author believ...
Better than expected headline, tough road ahead
TURKEY · Report · 03 Apr 2026
Consumer prices rose by a somewhat lower than expected 1.9% in March, with the 12-month rate declining to just under 31%, from 31.5% in February. Monthly PPI inflation was 2.3% in March, leading to a modest increase in the 12-month PPI rate to 28.1%, up from 27.6% in the previous month. Benign fo...
Something has to give
TURKEY · Forecast · 29 Mar 2026
With no quick resolution in sight to the ongoing regional conflict, the econ author shares some illustrative forecasts as to what the Turkish macro outlook could look like, should, contrary to consensus, this shock prove permanent, rather than temporary. In a nutshell, the stagflation-like mac...
Too many known unknowns
TURKEY · Report · 22 Mar 2026 · 1 response
At the end of the third week of the Iran War or Gulf Crisis, its expansion, damage to supply changes and neighboring economies have become devastating. Our job is to make predictions about the Turkish economy and politics, but without understanding how long the war might last, what its permanent ...
It will probably get worse before it gets better
TURKEY · Report · 15 Mar 2026
As the war in Iran enters its third week, it has progressed faster, harder and broader in geographical scope than any expert imagined. This is now a war of attrition, with no clear outcome. To make matters worse, Trump seems to be wavering between his advisors who suggest a graceful exit, and tho...
CBRT switches to a wait-and-see mode
TURKEY · Report · 12 Mar 2026
As expected, the CBRT/MPC kept the policy rate (together with the O/N lending and borrowing rates) unchanged today at 37%, stressing heightened geopolitical risks, the deterioration in the risk appetite and higher energy prices. In the statement, the reference to “step size” (regarding the magnit...
Iranian missiles, bank trials
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Mar 2026
I’ve bad news and good news for you. The bad news is Iran lobbing a second missile in the direction of the Incirlik Airbase. The good news is the Trump administration closing the forever-lasting Halkbank money laundering prosecution. Since I still think Iran War has weeks to go, I’m concerned abo...
Turkey flees, war finds her
TURKEY · Report · 08 Mar 2026
Like most experts, we had anticipated that Iran, the US and Israel will battle one another way before the Second Iran War began, but failed to see how fast it progressed, its broadening scope to neutral third parties and the ongoing escalation, rather than a consensus on finding common ground for...
February inflation: not much new or unexpected
TURKEY · Report · 03 Mar 2026
Consumer prices rose by 3% in February, broadly in line with expectations, with the 12-month rate rising to 31.5% from 30.7% in January. Producer prices rose by 2.4% in the month, which meant a modest increase also in the 12-month PPI inflation rate -- to 27.6%, from 27.2% in January. The main...