TURKEY
Analysts
Murat Ucer
Former Advisor, Economy Ministry and Central Bank
Atilla Yesilada
Former Director, Egebank Global ResearchDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
April inflation broadly as expected
TURKEY · Report · 05 May 2025
Monthly CPI inflation came in at 3%, m/m, in April, slightly below consensus forecasts of around 3.2%, with the 12-month rate easing slightly further to just under 38% (37.9%), from just over (38.1%) in March. Domestic producer prices (D-PPI) rose by 2.8%, m/m, in the month, which led to a full p...
A summer in purgatory
TURKEY · Forecast · 02 May 2025
The “narrow corridor” of 2025 that we’ve long been referring to, that of a CBRT traveling a tricky path between edgy politics and tenuous investor sentiment, has gotten narrower and more precarious quite a bit sooner than we anticipated. In this brief update to our previous quarterly/forecast ...
Tough and eerie times
TURKEY · Report · 27 Apr 2025
The 6.2 Richter scale tremor that shook Istanbul but caused very minor damage is a stark reminder that we are sitting on a time bomb. There is consensus among seismologists that Istanbul is due for a 7.2-7.4 quake “sometime in the future”. Of course, the question is when. On exact timing, experts...
Bahceli scenarios, CBRT reserves
TURKEY · Report · 20 Apr 2025 · 1 response
Political upheaval in Turkey is in full swing, with strong indications that President Erdogan has not given up on his objective of appointing trustees to Istanbul Municipality and CHP. The surprise is MHP leader Bahceli’s public objections to Erdogan’s plans. In the past, such public rebukes by B...
MPC does the right thing, difficult road ahead
TURKEY · Report · 17 Apr 2025
At its meeting today, the MPC/CBRT raised the policy rate by 350 basis points to 46%, compared to the consensus expectations of no change. While not ruling out a hike, we had also thought that a pause was the more likely outcome. Along with the policy rate, the MPC increased the O/N lending rate ...
CBRT’s baptism by fire
TURKEY · Report · 13 Apr 2025
President Erdogan received a delegation from pro-Kurdish Party DEM after 13 years, where reportedly PKK’s disarmament process was discussed. A tad bit more speculatively, DEM Party also laid out its 13 demands to participate in a new constitution. PKK and Syrian Kurds could start disarming for re...
Shape of things to come
TURKEY · Report · 06 Apr 2025
The politics section consists of a single essay, which attempts to answer how the current political upheaval will progress. It is relatively easy to foresee the near future, with sporadic mass protests and Erdogan trying to manage them by tactical retreats, to be reversed with sudden attacks on C...
Decent print, but brace for bumps ahead
TURKEY · Report · 03 Apr 2025
Consumer prices rose by a less than expected 2.5%, m/m, in March (versus consensus forecasts of around 2.9%) with the annual CPI-inflation rate falling by a full percentage point to 38.1%, from 39.1% in February. Monthly Domestic-PPI inflation posted a 1.9% increase in the month, lowering the 12-...
Finishing the week with FAQs
TURKEY · Report · 28 Mar 2025
As the political upheaval continues, we try to address some of the queries we’ve been receiving from our audience in this report and take stock of where things stand right before the onset of the Id holiday. We shall, needless to say, continue to update our thoughts and scenarios on both polit...