TURKEY
Analysts
Murat Ucer
Former Advisor, Economy Ministry and Central Bank
Atilla Yesilada
Former Director, Egebank Global ResearchDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
All eyes on CHP and reserves
TURKEY · Report · 07 Jun 2026
We’ve reported on Q1 growth and May inflation data last week, which, in a nutshell, leave us with a stagflationary picture, with economic activity barely moving sequentially, and annual CPI inflation edging up further to 32.6% (from 32.4% in April). The rebound in manufacturing sector PMI in M...
May inflation: still badly stuck
TURKEY · Report · 05 Jun 2026
CPI inflation was 1.7%, m/m, in May, slightly above expectations, with annual consumer price inflation edging up to 32.6%, from 32.4% in April. With monthly domestic PPI inflation at 2.75% in May, the 12-month PPI rate also rose -- to 28.9%, from 28.6%.
Stagnation in the first quarter
TURKEY · Report · 01 Jun 2026
The Turkish economy grew by 2.5%, y/y, in the first quarter of 2026, lower than market expectations (2.7%) and the 3.4% growth recorded in the previous quarter. Sequentially, i.e., on a quarter-on-quarter basis, growth continued to lose momentum visibly, barely moving in the quarter (0.13%, q/q),...
Mayhem @CHP: some thoughts
TURKEY · Report · 31 May 2026
As we had announced last Sunday, there will not be a weekly report today because Turkey was on holiday during much of last week. But politics was not, as the two CHP leaders – now dubbed by the local media “appointed” (Kemal Kilicdaroglu) vs “elected” (yet now ousted, Ozgur Ozel) – continued to b...
Under pressure
TURKEY · Report · 24 May 2026 · 3 responses
With the stroke of a gavel, CHP was returned to former chairman Kemal Kilicdarolgu, triggering a bitter and legally murky leadership battle. The politics author nevertheless thinks court-deposed chairman Ozgur Ozel has the upper hand, and if he loses the legal battle for the soul of the party, re...
Waiting for (a bunch of) Godot(s)
TURKEY · Report · 17 May 2026
At home, President Erdogan broadened his war against CHP with the specter of a closure suit against the latter, new probes against city mayors and ongoing recruitments. As the politics author stated in last Sunday’s Weekly, Erdogan is waiting to see how the Iran War (or the Gulf Conflict) ends...
Webinar replay: Iran War and Turkey's macro outlook - What changed?
TURKEY · Report · 15 May 2026
What impact will the war in Iran have on Turkey's economic outlook? Will the conflict create short-term economic pain but potentially lead to long-term gains? What is the trajectory of monetary policy, and how is the CBRT positioning itself? How effectively is President Erdoğan managing the assoc...
Target up, forecast up, band out
TURKEY · Report · 14 May 2026
In today’s much-anticipated Inflation Report, the second of the year, the CBRT raised the interim target to 24% from 16%, the yearend inflation forecast to 26% (from 18%, midpoint) and discontinued the practice of providing a forecast band around its midpoint forecast, the latter because of excep...
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst
TURKEY · Report · 10 May 2026
In domestic politics, there is not much to write home about. President Erdogan seems to have put all urgent domestic policy issues, such as how to get rid of CHP indefinitely on hold, pending the outcome of the Iran War, to which the politics author stubbornly refers to as the Gulf Crisis. This p...