TURKEY
Analysts
Murat Ucer
Former Advisor, Economy Ministry and Central Bank
Atilla Yesilada
Former Director, Egebank Global ResearchDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
CBRT cuts, Moody’s upgrades, politicians dither
TURKEY · Report · 27 Jul 2025 · 1 response
With few neurons firing during an excruciating heatwave, the politics author cuts his essays short, saving his energy for the upcoming quarterly/forecast report. Frankly, with everything being in the air, there is not much to report home, except to say, “this looks like a pregnant pause”. He expe...
MPC: in a bit of a hurry
TURKEY · Report · 24 Jul 2025
The CBRT/MPC lowered the policy rate (one-week repo rate) by a more than expected 300 bps to 43% today, vs consensus and our expectation of 250 bps. The O/N lending and borrowing rates were also lowered by 300 bps (see chart), as the asymmetry of the O/N corridor was maintained, with the former n...
Politics tumultuous, econ on autopilot
TURKEY · Report · 20 Jul 2025
The politics author laments that this is the most difficult period in his 35 years of covering Turkey. Everything he writes below is subject to unusually large margins of error. Nevertheless, he makes bold predictions, believing that shedding some light into the future is better than saying “it a...
(Kurdish) Peace Process: A little bit of Peace, a lot of Process
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Jul 2025
Most visitors come back from Bodrum with fun memories: Sun-kissed pristine beaches, endless rave parties and excessive food and alcohol consumption. Your Truly came back with food poisoning, thus skipping his contribution to our Weekly Tracker. This Market Brief is to atone for his sins, where he...
Strong retail sales, modest fiscal improvement
TURKEY · Report · 13 Jul 2025
This is a brief, econ-only report, as our politics author is dealing with a few minor health issues. He will update our readership on recent political developments in the next 24-48 hours. Industrial production and retail and wholesale trade both rose visibly in May over April, but the big pic...
Disinflation amidst political turmoil
TURKEY · Report · 06 Jul 2025
The final battle between Erdogan and CHP began Saturday, when three more CHP mayors were detained. Erdogan holds all the cards against a defiant Ozgur Ozel in this winner-takes-all wrestling match, which will soon witness Ankara mayor Mansur Yavas and Ozel himself being eliminated from politics, ...
Better headline, thanks to food prices
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jul 2025
Consumer prices rose by a slightly less than expected 1.4%, m/m, in June, with the annual CPI-inflation rate easing modestly to 35.1%, from 35.4% in May. Monthly Domestic-PPI inflation posted a 2.5% increase in the month, with the 12-month rate, in contrast, rising further to 24.5%, from 23.1% in...
Erdogan – Ozel feud: A temporary reprieve
TURKEY · In Brief · 02 Jul 2025 · 1 response
Contrary to expectations of a majority of experts, the court postponed its ruling on the CHP convention fraud case to 8 September which evoked new thinking about potential outcomes and timing. Is Erdogan making a peace offer to Ozel, or is this just a tactical pause? Spoiler alert, it is the latt...
A historic week in Turkish politics
TURKEY · Report · 29 Jun 2025 · 1 response
It is cliché, but this is going to be a truly historic week in Turkish politics. On Monday (June 30), an Ankara court will hear arguments from plaintiffs and defendants on whether there was fraud in CHP’s next-to-last grand convention, when Ozgur Ozel replaced Kemal Kilicdaroglu. In bad-case s...