TURKEY
Analysts
Murat Ucer
Former Advisor, Economy Ministry and Central Bank
Atilla Yesilada
Former Director, Egebank Global ResearchDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
CBRT reserve estimates: a technical note
TURKEY · Report · 07 Mar 2025
If there is one macro indicator that needs to be watched very closely in Turkey’s disinflation journey and to gauge the (economic) sustainability of the “program” more broadly, that’s the CBRT reserves.
Another 250 bps cut, more in store
TURKEY · Report · 06 Mar 2025
The MPC/CBRT reduced the policy rate (one-week repo) by another 250 bps today, in line with expectations, including ours, to 42.5%. In terms of the content of the statement (link here), there was not a whole lot new. The statement began by noting that “the underlying trend of inflation decreas...
An encouraging print in the long disinflation journey
TURKEY · Report · 03 Mar 2025
Consumer prices rose by a markedly lower than expected 2.3%, m/m, versus market consensus of 3% (February 2024: 4.5%). Our miss primarily stemmed from a better performance in food, and to a lesser extent textile and health sub-categories. The 12-month CPI inflation thus fell further to 39.1% -- a...
Peace hopes and rate cuts
TURKEY · Report · 02 Mar 2025
PKK’s honorary leader Ocalan finally issued a call for PKK’s disarmament and self-abolition, which covers Syrian Kurds, too. While PKK’s immediate declaration of ceasefire is an encouraging response in terms pushing the process forward, “getting there” -- whether the end game is satisfying Kurdis...
Strong growth with (re-)rebalancing…
TURKEY · Report · 28 Feb 2025
The Turkish economy expanded at a sequential pace of 1.7%, q/q, in the final quarter of the year, broadly in line with forecasts, after slight contractions in the previous two quarters (in calendar- and seasonally-adjusted terms). Activity expanded by 3%, y/y, in Q4, with GDP thus growing by 3.2%...
Jittery politics, jittery reserves
TURKEY · Report · 23 Feb 2025 · 2 responses
On Friday, the stock market experienced a selling frenzy, largely driven by rumors of Treasury and Finance Minister Simsek’s ouster, or replacement by Mr. Berat Albayrak. The politics author spent the weekend investigating these rumors, concluding they are not credible at all. On the other han...
Another week of solid data, rising tensions
TURKEY · Report · 16 Feb 2025 · 1 response
Domestic political tensions continue to rise. A new lawsuit has been launched against the Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, while an investigation on bribery in CHP’s last grand convention could lead to the party being managed by a government-appointed trustee for a year or two. The politics author ...
On Turkey’s (political) fat tails
TURKEY · Report · 09 Feb 2025
Having poured his heart out first in the recent quarterly/forecast report, the politics author is no mood to revisit the same old territory. Regarding “routine business,” he merely recaps the week’s developments pertinent to the main narrative, the most important of which is a “historic” statemen...
Inflation Report: End-2025 forecast up, but easing cycle very likely to continue
TURKEY · Report · 07 Feb 2025
The CBRT has released the first Inflation Report of the year. The Bank, somewhat unexpectedly, revised up its end-2025 inflation forecast already to 24% from 21% previously (midpoints), while maintaining the 5 pp band around the forecast, as well as the 12% forecast for next year (see Slides 39-4...