TURKEY
Analysts
Murat Ucer
Former Advisor, Economy Ministry and Central Bank
Atilla Yesilada
Former Director, Egebank Global ResearchDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
In a bit of a hurry
TURKEY · Report · 25 Aug 2026
The CBRT lowered the money market rates (TLREF) to around 37% from around 40%-- more abruptly than we thought. After the dovish signals sent by Governor Fatih Karahan at the recent Inflation Report meeting, this was almost certain to happen, but we thought a more gradual move --to test market sen...
A macro update (or, enjoy it while it lasts!)
TURKEY · Report · 18 Aug 2026 · 1 response
With our weekly on holiday, we thought a brief update on the recent data releases could prove useful. The economy is looking more stagflationary: activity and employment have both stalled, yet inflation has hardly budged from 30%+ levels. Disgruntlement in the business community is growing, to...
Inflation forecast up, but easing hopes alive
TURKEY · In Brief · 13 Aug 2026
The CBRT released its third Inflation Report of the year today. The Bank once again revised its end-2026 inflation forecast upward, to 28% from 26%, while keeping its year-end interim target unchanged at 24%. Its forecasts for 2027 and 2028, which also serve as interim targets, were left unchange...
Peace Process: A Happy Ending of Sorts
TURKEY · In Brief · 11 Aug 2026
Global Source Partners TURKEY has publicly declared a recess for the month of August, but the Turkish parliament stubbornly denies this fundamental right. Instead, after sitting on its fat derriere for most of the winter/spring session, it passed a very useful piece of legislation before ITS rece...
Mecca Pact: Face-saver or game-changer?
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Aug 2026
First, my apologies for posting this Market Brief at this Godawful hour, but my humble dwelling in Istanbul turned into a mini-heat sink frying my brains during the day. The heat wave is a nice segway to jump to the Holy City of Mecca, Saudi Arabia, which is also suffering from it and has recentl...
No respite for the CBRT in the July data
TURKEY · Report · 03 Aug 2026
Consumer price rose by 1.8%, m/m, in July, broadly in line with expectations, with the 12-month CPI inflation easing slightly to 31.8%, from 32.1% in June. Producer price inflation came in at 1.5%, with the 12-month PPI inflation rate also falling modestly to 27.8%, from 28.1% in the previous mon...
New party, old business
TURKEY · Report · 26 Jul 2026
Ozgur Ozel and 91 comrades finally resigned from CHP, forming New Party the same day. More CHP deputies are expected to join New Party in the coming days, and the party has ample staff fired from CHP by Kilicdaroglu to complete the national organization requirements. Yet, these are mere technical...
Demand slowdown to the rescue
TURKEY · Report · 23 Jul 2026
As expected, the CBRT/MPC left the policy (weekly-repo) and O/N rates unchanged today. There were a few relatively minor changes/updates to the statement, all delivered in the first paragraph, which are also sort of self-evident, in our view.
Ozel finally launches New Party
TURKEY · In Brief · 21 Jul 2026
It is stating the obvious, but I need to write this Market Brief to put a footnote to Turkish political history. At an emotional and defiant speech at the parliamentary caucus, Ozel finally heralded that he is founding “a” or “the New” Party. Depending on the source 82 or 85 CHP MPs attended the ...