RUSSIA ECONOMICS
Analyst
Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Russian macro: the government trims expectations of medium-term economic growth
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Oct 2026
At the end of September, the government released an updated medium-term macroeconomic outlook along with the draft 2027–2029 budget, submitting the necessary documents to the Duma for hearings. Few amendments are expected, and the documents will likely be approved, with only possible minor adjust...
Economic statistics appeared unimpressive in August
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Oct 2026
Recent monthly economic data from Rosstat suggests that the nation’s growth model, driven by steadily increasing government spending to meet specific needs, is nearing a tipping point that may require changes. The short-term indicator of economic activity - covering industry, agriculture, constru...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Oct 2026
In the second half of September, the big news for the local market was the release of the 2027 budget parameters and an updated version of the 2026 budget, submitted to Parliament at the month’s end. Minfin proposed lowering the cut-off oil price for the fiscal rule from $59/bbl to $50. While thi...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Sep 2026
A new round of escalation in the Middle East pushed up oil prices, Urals went above $105 per barrel, the first time since May. The latter had helped the USD/RUB to stabilize within the USD/RUB84-85 range. Given the high level of oil price, we expect the overall amount of purchasing of currency by...
Federal budget deficit narrows in August despite weak oil-and-gas revenue flow.
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Sep 2026
Minfin reported that oil-and-gas (O&G) revenues reached R6.0 trln in 8M26, down 16.7% y-o-y, while non-O&G revenues rose 18.1% y-o-y to R20.9 trln. The 2026 targets are R8.9 trln for O&G and R31.4 trln for non-O&G revenues. By August, O&G revenue collection had reached only 56.2% of the annual pl...
Economic growth remains sluggish in July
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Sep 2026
Recent economic data came as no surprise. After Rosstat reported a 0.6% y-o-y GDP increase in 1H26, it noted that in July the combined output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade) grew by 0.8% y-o-y, bringing growth for 7M26 to just 0.1% y-o-y....
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Sep 2026
The USD/RUB continued to slide in recent weeks, having surpassed the 87 mark and moving closer to 88. Generally the FX market entered a period of correction that followed months of an unhealthy appreciation of the currency amid increased oil prices and their high volatility The recent ruble depre...
Industrial production remains almost flat y-o-y
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Aug 2026
Recent industrial production statistics suggest the industry as a whole hasn’t grown much this year. Earlier, we noted that Rosstat surprisingly used two different base years for the same time series, which caused a big mismatch between y-o-y and m-o-m data. In its latest release, Rosstat revised...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 20 Aug 2026
The FX market’s reaction to the 14% surge in oil prices over the past two weeks, driven by renewed tensions between Iran and the US, was far from straightforward. The ruble fell about 5% during this time, likely due to increased capital outflows, including the non-repatriation of export earnings ...