RUSSIA ECONOMICS
Analyst
Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Economic growth reportedly decelerated in June, albeit available statistics were incomplete
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Aug 2025
Rosstat’s recent monthly statistical bulletin (with June data) looked unusual as the statistical agency didn’t publish basic sectors output change (its favorite monthly proxy for overall economic activity). It occurred for the first time since the agency started publishing this indicator. In 5M25...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 31 Jul 2025
The CBR cut the key rate by 200 bps to 18% in line with market expectations. The regulator’s rhetoric was rather neutral, while many investors expected a more dovish tone. As a result, the OFZ yields contracted moderately. We think these expectations seemed unfounded, as the CBR had never sounded...
The CBR cut the key rate by 200 bps as inflation subsides
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Jul 2025
On July 25, the CBR’s Board of Directors cut the key rate by 200 bps to 18% and announced it expects the policy rate to average 18.8-19.6% this year. Therefore, the regulator hinted at another 200 bps cut, most likely in September, as August will likely be deflationary. The CBR sees inflationary ...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Jul 2025
The rally on the OFZ market continued, and the yield curve approached 14% in its long end (versus 15% two or three weeks ago). The CBR published its regular survey on the current economic trends, which indicated that current inflation “in annualised terms moved close to 4%”. This statement suppor...
Russian macro: the economy is cooling as the growth model requires transformation
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 11 Jul 2025
GDP statistics suggested that the nation’s seasonally adjusted GDP contracted by 0.6% Q-o-Q in 1Q25. April statistics also failed to impress. However, the economy was seemingly looking up in May. As a technical recession implies negative economic performance for two consecutive quarters, this ris...
Federal budget deficit could exceed the amended target amid disinflation and excessively strong ruble
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 08 Jul 2025
The recent thinking of the Russian government suggests the 2025 federal budget deficit of R3.8 trln, which is wider than the initial target of R1.2 trln. The reason behind this change is shrinking oil-and-gas (O&G) revenues as the ruble remains too strong (at about USD/RUB 79) for some time, with...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Jul 2025
The FX market remains stable, as the ruble hovers close to R/$78 for some time. It looks as though the ruble demonstrated some immunity to various domestic and external factors. In our view, it may fluctuate around these levels for a bit longer. However, at some point, the excessively strong will...
The economy will likely avoid technical recession as May statistics look better
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Jul 2025
A few weeks ago, Rosstat reported that in 1Q25, the nation’s seasonally adjusted GDP contracted by 0.6% Q-o-Q. This publication fueled speculation about Russia's entering a recession, especially because April statistics didn’t impress, either. As technical recession implies negative economic grow...
Economic performance set to stabilize in 2H25
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 26 Jun 2025
Rosstat reported that in May and 5M25, Russian industrial output grew by 1.8% and 1.3% y-o-y. The mining segment contracted by 1.1% and 2.7%, while the manufacturing grew by 4.0% and 4.2% (y-o-y in May alone and 5M25 in both cases). Even though y-o-y numbers looked unimpressive compared to last y...