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GULF WEEKLY: KSA investment licenses boom, Aramco plans more debt, UAE equity markets surpass $1trn, ICC issues arrest warrant for Netanyahu
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 Nov 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude has recovered to $74 as the market weighs geopolitical risks and Chinese demand. * Trump nominated fracking pioneer Chris Wright as Energy Secretary and met with PIF’s chairman. * KSA issued a record number of...

Questions from our webinar "Mexico debt, growth and trade under the Sheinbaum administration"
MEXICO · Report · 22 Nov 2024

We received a number of questions from participants that we didn't have time to answer during our webinar "Mexico debt, growth and trade under the Sheinbaum administration". In this report, we answer these questions, which deal with topics such as Pemex, the auto industry, constitutional reform a...

Fitch Ratings maintains BB- risk rating with positive outlook
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 22 Nov 2024

Fitch Ratings has decided to maintain the Dominican Republic's risk rating at BB- with a positive outlook. This marks the same rating assigned in 2023, when the country first received a positive outlook, following a period at BB- with a stable outlook between 2020 and 2022. The rating reflects th...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: A cynic's view on Abkhazia's Black Friday
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 22 Nov 2024

The breakaway Republic of Abkhazia, which is internationally recognized as part of Georgia, got its 15 minutes of fame last Friday when protesters stormed government buildings in Sukhumi in opposition to an investment agreement that would have legalized Russian investments and ownership of land a...

Webinar replay and slide presentation: Mexico debt, growth and trade under the Sheinbaum administration
MEXICO · Report · 22 Nov 2024

How will Claudia Sheinbaum's government cope with a slowing economy? Will it be able to maintain the harmony of between inflation, wages, interest rates and the exchange rate? How effective will the 2025 fiscal program be in controlling the growth of public debt? What impact will the incoming US ...

The South African Reserve Bank maintains momentum as it lowers interest rates by a second consecutive 25 bps
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 Nov 2024

The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) opted to lower the benchmark interest rate by a further 25 basis points, from 8% to 7.75%, during its final meeting of the year. This represents a second cut since the Bank started lowering rates in September of the current y...

Trump’s victory is good for Orbán, but not necessarily good for Hungary
HUNGARY · Report · 21 Nov 2024

PM Orbán appeared to be greatly relieved, and even victorious, on the news of Trump’s reelection for US president. Below we argue that this result will likely raise his personal status significantly, whereas Mr. Trump’s economic and foreign policies are much less likely to favor Hungary. In do...

Rate unchanged, statement visibly more dovish
TURKEY · Report · 21 Nov 2024

The CBRT/MPC left the policy rate (one-week repo) unchanged at 50% at today’s meeting, in line with expectations. The statement (link here) turned visibly more dovish in our view, enhancing the probability of a December rate cut, assuming that November inflation does not badly surprise on the ups...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 21 Nov 2024

Fears of a new wave of military escalation in Ukraine were the main driver for the Russian FX market during the last two weeks. On the back of this, the exchange rate surpassed the R/$100 benchmark. The equity market also went down - by about 3%. Investors are also concerned by the CBR’s another ...

Lula and Xi Jinping sign various bilateral agreements, the PT requested the shelving of the January 8 amnesty bill, and the CCJ will hold another public hearing on Tax Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Nov 2024

Yesterday, Presidents Lula and Xi Jinping signed a joint declaration after their countries concluded 37 bilateral agreements. Yesterday, the Workers' Party (PT) submitted a request to the President of the Lower House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), to shelve the bill that would grant amnesty to those convi...

Beijing tries again
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 20 Nov 2024

Beijing has once again—after several earlier attempts—tried to strengthen the economy through a stimulus package. This package, at 10 trillion yuan, is larger than previous attempts but is unlikely to achieve the desired turnaround in the economy to halt the decline in property sales and the rise...

No base rate cut in November either, unsurprisingly
HUNGARY · In Brief · 19 Nov 2024

The Monetary Council left the MNB base rate unchanged at 6.5% at the monthly rate-setting meeting held today. As Vice Governor Virág said after the meeting, there was one member who proposed a 25 bps rate cut, but that was voted down by an overwhelming majority of decision-makers. This result was...

The Senate voted on the new rules for the parliamentary fund transfers, the House approved the bill on the Brazilian Payment System, and discussions on Tax Reform are ongoing
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Nov 2024

The Senate concluded yesterday the vote on the complementary bill that defines new rules for parliamentary fund transfers. The text will now have to go through further analysis in the Lower House. Yesterday, the House approved a bill redefining the rules for the operation, supervision, and risk m...

Economics: High risk of tariffs and trade sanctions generates investment uncertainty
MEXICO · Report · 19 Nov 2024

The victory of Donald Trump, together with the Republican majority in both houses of the U.S. Congress, indicates that it is practically a given that there will be pressure to threaten to impose tariffs on Mexico. The aim would be to force the Mexican government to toughen measures to prevent the...

Politics: The challenges facing the new PAN leadership
MEXICO · Report · 18 Nov 2024

On Sunday, November 11, the PAN, Mexico’s main opposition party, renewed its leadership, with its newly elected president, Jorge Romero, promising a thoroughgoing reform. However, the obstacles are formidable, beginning with Romero’s very diminished credibility. His reputation has been tarnished ...

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