GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Recent weeks have brought significant political changes in Mexico that carry far-reaching implications for both democratic governance and electoral competition. Within Morena, President Claudia Sheinbaum has orchestrated a leadership reshuffle that effectively tightens her grip on the ruling part...

Macro update: tail risks down, frictions up

ARGENTINA · Report · 27 Apr 2026

Argentina’s macro program continues to deliver short-term financial stability, but the underlying tensions between disinflation, growth, and external sustainability remain unresolved. Recent developments confirm that the policy mix is effective at reducing tail risks—namely, a disorderly devaluat...

Former Israeli PMs Bennett and Lapid join forces ahead of elections to form the largest party

ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 Apr 2026

In an interesting political development, Yair Lapid, head of the Yesh Atid party and former prime minister, and Naftali Bennett, a former prime minister, have agreed to unite politically ahead of the next elections. Bennett is expected to lead the joint list, with Lapid serving as number two. The...

Tajikistan breaks record with massive CA surplus

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 27 Apr 2026

As I indicated earlier, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, arguably the two most interesting countries from an analytical perspective as far as the external sector is concerned, lagged with reporting full 2025 BoP data, but the former has now announced it. Very meaningfully, Tajikistan has posted its 6th...

The year of living dangerously

TURKEY · Report · 26 Apr 2026

There is no sign that the Iran War will end anytime soon, with most experts now warning that the Straits of Hormuz may remain shut for months to come. Turkey has managed the spillover from the war adroitly – so far, judging by the success of the strong TL policy and her sticking to a line of stri...

Orbán resigned from parliament but wants to remain president of Fidesz

HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Apr 2026

Outgoing PM Orbán gave back his parliamentary mandate, which he obtained as No. 1 on Fidesz's party list, yesterday. This means that for the first time since 1990, Mr. Orbán will not be present as a representative in the National Assembly. Fidesz will have the right to nominate another representa...

GULF WEEKLY: Ceasefire extended, but Hormuz closed, and oil rebounds, Moody’s puts Bahrain on a negative outlook, Dubai approves metro extension

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 24 Apr 2026

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil has rebounded as Hormuz remains closed and the US and Iran both seize ships. * A report that it could take up to six months to clear mines added to market concerns. * Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely, and the...

South Africa’s investment in infrastructure and shift to sustainable growth

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 24 Apr 2026

South Africa’s infrastructure investment trajectory has steadily weakened over the past decade, both in absolute terms and relative to peers. From a relatively stable range of around 18–19% of GDP between 2010 and 2015, investment began to trend downward from 2016, falling to just 13.4% by 2025. ...

The government submitted a bill that authorizes a tax compensation mechanism, the STF reached a majority on the minimum subsistence threshold, and President Lula is expected to address the nation on Labor Day

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Apr 2026

The federal government announced yesterday that it has submitted a complementary bill (PLP) to Congress authorizing a tax compensation mechanism. The proposal would allow extraordinary oil revenues to be used to subsidize reductions in fuel taxes. The Supreme Federal Court (STF) reached a majorit...

Industrial production trends remain unclear, domestic demand weakens

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 24 Apr 2026

As Rosstat continues to intrigue observers, we remain puzzled about Russia’s economic trends, particularly in the industry. Earlier this year, we mentioned that, due to Rosstat’s internal regulations, the statistical agency decided to publish industrial production statistics for 2023 at fixed pri...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Inside the seductive complexity of Armenia's election math

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 24 Apr 2026

Two fresh polls were released in Armenia over the past two weeks, which allows me to tighten up my predictions about how the elections will evolve in about a month's time. The polls are valuable as it has been now two months since the previous batch of surveys were produced, so that the new resul...

Imports fell sharply in March amid the war, but the trade deficit widened in Q1, which could eventually lead to upward pressure on the exchange rate

ISRAEL · In Brief · 24 Apr 2026

Foreign trade data for March, which was the first full month of the war, pointed to a sharp contraction in imports, which fell by 12% m/m, although they remained 2% higher y/y. The decline was broad-based: Consumer goods imports dropped by 16%, raw materials by 10%, and investment goods by 22%. I...

The House approved the admissibility of two PECs on the 6x1 work schedule, Zema took part in a debate on the electoral outlook, and the rapporteur of the strategic minerals bill postponed his report to May 4

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Apr 2026

The Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) of the Lower House approved the admissibility of two constitutional amendment proposals (PECs) that aim to reduce the workweek in Brazil. In practice, the proposals would eliminate the six-days-on, one-day-off (6x1) schedule. Yesterday, presidential pr...

Kast's Big Beautiful Bill

CHILE · In Brief · 23 Apr 2026

President José Antonio Kast has framed his National Reconstruction Plan as a response to the three crises he claims Chile is facing: economic, political and security. Kast knows that of the three, it is security that has been uppermost in the electorate’s mind. Yet the Plan appears to be centered...

Bulgaria after the elections, Atlanticist but sovereign—the Western/Russian perspective

RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 23 Apr 2026

After the landslide victory of Hungary's opposition in a historic election earlier this month, the question many analysts were asking in Brussels was: Who will be Russia's next Orban in the EU?" Just one week later, on April 19, former Bulgarian President Rumen Radev (2017-26) led Progressive Bul...