GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * There were doubts about the effectiveness of new US sanctions on Iran and threats from Iran. * The shift to sanctions and the return of diplomats to US embassies eased the risk of strikes. * Two tankers were hit in Hormuz...

Capital flow difficulties

INDIA · Report · 28 Aug 2026

The Indian macroeconomic landscape has experienced a deceleration in net foreign capital inflows over the past decade. While market commentary frequently highlights nominal quarterly portfolio exits exceeding Rs.1 trillion (USD 11.11 billion), recent empirical work demonstrates that these flows r...

President Lula was interviewed by Jornal Nacional, free electoral advertising on radio and TV begins today and will run through October 1, and next week will be the last week of concentrated legislative activity before the elections

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Aug 2026

President Lula’s (PT) interview on Jornal Nacional was marked by a more cordial tone from journalists César Tralli and Renata Vasconcellos compared with their interviews of the other candidates (Romeu Zema, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos). Nevertheless, Lula struggled during the interview. Free...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Tajikistan's high-octane growth bet

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 28 Aug 2026

Continuing in the vein of my analyses of medium-term frameworks, I follow on the Uzbekistan's 2027-2029 Fiscal Strategy and now dissect the medium-term macroeconomic framework presented by the Tajik government on Jul 29. Without a doubt, it comes across as an ambitious high-growth scenario cente...

South Africa’s economy: stronger fundamentals, tougher headwinds

SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 28 Aug 2026

Summary and assumptions: South Africa’s growth: The South African economy maintained its growth momentum into the start of 2026, extending the recovery that began in 2025. Despite a more challenging global environment, the country's improving macroeconomic fundamentals continued to provide sup...

Solid construction and Canal-based growth in June; the MEF fails to advance a minor but necessary fiscal reform

PANAMA · Report · 27 Aug 2026

The acceleration of the IMAE to 8.2% in June from 5.2% in May reflects the confluence of three factors: a favorable base effect resulting from the disruption to economic activity in June 2025; a temporary boost to household consumption from Panama’s participation in the World Cup; and continued s...

Industrial production remains almost flat y-o-y

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Aug 2026

Recent industrial production statistics suggest the industry as a whole hasn’t grown much this year. Earlier, we noted that Rosstat surprisingly used two different base years for the same time series, which caused a big mismatch between y-o-y and m-o-m data. In its latest release, Rosstat revised...

Presidential candidate Renan Santos was interviewed by Jornal Nacional, Lula met with Congress leaders to discuss the legislative agenda, and the bill on the import tax on low-value purchases may be put to a vote next week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Aug 2026

Missão’s presidential candidate, Renan Santos (Missão), performed well in his interview with Jornal Nacional. Renan showed that he had a clear strategy and did not shy away from questions, even when he had to defend controversial and unpopular measures. Compared with Romeu Zema and Ronaldo Caiado...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 26 Aug 2026

Aug 13 US Department of Agriculture: The agency has raised its forecast for wheat exports from Kazakhstan in the current agricultural year (July 2026 to June 2027) from 9 to 10 mln tons. Aug 14 National pipeline company: Kazakh oil exports to Russian Ust‑Luga port were cut by 16.9% y-o-y, while e...

Presidential candidate Caiado was interviewed by Jornal Nacional, Senator Aziz said he will present his report on the 6x1 PEC tomorrow, and the Brazilian government will meet with the USTR on Monday (Aug. 31)

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Aug 2026

The interview with PSD presidential candidate and former Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado on Jornal Nacional was marked by a lack of concrete policy proposals. On several questions, Caiado chose to sidestep the issues raised. Senator Omar Aziz (PSD-AM) confirmed that he will present his report tomor...

Challenges ahead, with the global environment a major factor

CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 25 Aug 2026

Guatemala’s economy remained resilient in H1 2026, despite weaker global growth, geopolitical tensions and tight financial conditions. Economic activity expanded by 4.4%, supported by private consumption, remittances, financial-sector stability and stronger public investment. Remittance inflows r...

Kazakhstan macro: The tenge remains strong as the current account turns positive and capital flows in

KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 25 Aug 2026

S&P Global Ratings recently upgraded Kazakhstan’s sovereign credit ratings to BBB from BBB- (long-term) and A-2 from A-3 (short-term), recognizing the government’s fiscal reforms and greater resilience to external shocks. The agency noted GDP growth could reach about 5.1% this year — well above i...

Washington decides the course, Caracas negotiates the pace

VENEZUELA · Report · 25 Aug 2026

After the earthquakes, the country returns to a "new normal" under more pressure to accelerate change — though the relevant actors understand "change" quite differently. The negotiating table between the 2015 National Assembly delegation and the Rodríguez government, represented by the 2025 Na...

MNB base rate down by another 25bps today, future path remains uncertain

HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Aug 2026 · 1 response

Today's 25bps reduction of the MNB base rate, to 5.5%, was exactly as expected, given the MNB's own forecast of late June, and the latest excellent CPI-inflation reading for July. However, the rate reduction 'mini-cycle', as Governor Varga called it two months ago, is now over, and Mr. Varga hims...

The latest poll shows Lula would tie with Flávio Bolsonaro and Caiado in a runoff, Flávio’s campaign filed a complaint with the TSE against Lula, and Justice Dino authorized further investigations into the film “Dark Horse”

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Aug 2026

Yesterday’s release of a Nexus BTG Pactual poll on the presidential election showed President Lula in a statistical tie with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and former Goiás Governor Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) in potential runoff scenarios. In a hypothetical runoff race against Flávio, Lula has 46%, whil...