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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Jan 17
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Brazil Economics databank Jan 16
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Central America databank Jan 28
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Chile databank Dec 3
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Jan 8
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Dominican Republic databank Dec 23
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Ecuador databank Jan 21
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Gulf Countries databank Jan 24
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Hungary databank Jan 24
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India databank Jan 24
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Mexico databank Jan 23
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Panama databank Jan 28
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Peru databank Dec 9
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Philippines databank Jan 10
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Russia Economics databank Jan 15
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South Africa databank Jan 8
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Turkey databank Dec 24
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Ukraine databank Nov 12
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Venezuela databank Jan 7
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - POLAND: ECONOMIC TRENDS, POLITICAL SHIFTS, AND THE ...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
A pension deal? Political wrinkles and potential economic impact
CHILE · Report · 28 Jan 2025
The summer break is well underway in Chile. And by the time things gear up again in March, the presidential and congressional election campaigns will be as well. Primaries, to be held at the end of June, are now less than six months away. Recall that presidential and congressional elections will ...
The Monetary Council sent out an expressly hawkish message today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Jan 2025
Just as expected, the Council took no action regarding the MNB 6.5% base rate at today's regular monthly rate-setting meeting. So, analysts, who uniformly expected a hold decision this time, have been vindicated. Until this point, this is no really interesting story, but the messages sent out by ...
Trump’s opening remarks indicate carrot-and-stick approach towards Russia-Ukraine negotiations
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 28 Jan 2025
• Trump threatens Russia and “participating countries” with more sanctions, tariffs and taxes if no peace deal is reached soon. • Russia’s oil revenues will be targeted by Trump—Western sanctions against the shadow fleet are increasing costs, stalling China and India’s purchases of Russian oil...
Preparing for global challenges
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Jan 2025
Costa Rica is facing fiscal challenges that require strong policy actions to ensure long-term sustainability. Progress made in previous years improved fiscal indicators. Nevertheless, for the second year in a row there has been a slight deterioration in some fiscal data. The lack of a formal agre...
The President’s disapproval rating has increased across all groups, Petrobras will meet tomorrow to discuss fuel prices, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs discussed the conditions of Brazilians deported from the US
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Jan 2025
The Quaest poll published yesterday reveals concerning data for the government. The President's disapproval rating has increased across all regions, age groups, and among both men and women. In cases where disapproval remained stable, approval ratings dropped, indicating significant deterioration...
One for one … so far
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Jan 2025
The political dynamics in Venezuela remain largely unchanged. Nicolás Maduro succeeded in being sworn in on January 10 but fell short of legitimizing his leadership. María Corina Machado bolstered her standing with a high-profile appearance at a January 9 rally that garnered extensive internation...
Parties are already strategizing for the 2026 race and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Jan 2025
This week, the Central Bank—now under the leadership of Gabriel Galípolo—will hold its first meeting of the year to decide the benchmark interest rate (Selic). On Saturday (February 1), members of the Lower House and Senate will elect the next presidents of their respective Houses for the 2025-20...
Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Jan 2025
OVERVIEW OSTENSIBLE FRAILTY Still reeling from the impact of the emergency brain surgery he underwent in December to drain a hematoma caused by a fall in October, Lula, at 79, has confided to aides that he may lack the health to run in the 2026 election. What was visible to external obser...
Bolsonaro discusses the 2026 elections, the Copom will meet this week to decide on the Selic, and the Petrobras Board of Directors will meet to discuss fuel prices
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Jan 2025
Last week, in an interview with CNN, former President Jair Bolsonaro stated that former First Lady Michele and his son Eduardo Bolsonaro are good options to run in the 2026 elections. The Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) meets this Tuesday and Wednesday (January 28 and 29) to deci...
Economics: Some general implications on the Mexican economy of Trump's executive orders
MEXICO · Report · 27 Jan 2025
Some of the threats made against Mexico by then-candidate Donald Trump during his presidential campaign were converted into executive orders on the day he was inaugurated. He persists in his threats to impose an additional 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada, and 60% on imports from China. However, t...
No rate action expected from tomorrow's Monetary Council
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Jan 2025
The regular monthly rate-setting meeting of the Monetary Council is scheduled for tomorrow. This will be the first one in 2025 and also the penultimate one chaired by the outgoing governor, Mr. Matolcsy.None of the twelve analysts asked by Portfolio.hu in their regular poll expect any rate action...
Politics: Mexico responds to Trump’s initial measures, but is the government up for the challenge?
MEXICO · Report · 27 Jan 2025
Donald Trump’s first measures upon assuming office on January 20 came as no surprise to Mexico, and the Mexican government and society as a whole almost unanimously condemns Trump’s tough and aggressive anti-immigrant stance. President Claudia Sheinbaum’s approach has been on multiple levels: con...
More of the same in 2025?
TURKEY · Forecast · 26 Jan 2025
2024 was a good year in Turkey’s financial markets, much more so than we had expected, as attested to by the sharp improvement in several financial indicators, most notably reserves, but not so, in terms of the hoped-for gains on the disinflation front. 2025 will be a testing year in this rega...
GULF WEEKLY: Trump demands a lower oil price and Saudi cash, MGX invests in US AI infrastructure, Oman Article IV published
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 24 Jan 2025 · 2 responses
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf delegations were highly visible at Davos, on panels and in their national pavilions. * Trump demanded at Davos that OPEC reduce oil prices, saying this would end the war in Ukraine. * Pending IPOs include Derayah and...
Geopolitical risks and the domestic economy: Are Chinese officials getting nervous?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 24 Jan 2025
Xi Jinping is fighting two fires simultaneously: the geopolitical risk of sanctions and a trade war, and a rapidly slowing domestic economy. The trade war outcome is out of his control until Trump enacts specific policies. Even then, Xi has limited retaliatory options such as restricting exports ...