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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Apr 15
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Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank Mar 31
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Mar 5
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Dominican Republic databank Mar 20
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Ecuador databank Mar 21
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Gulf Countries databank Apr 11
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Hungary databank Mar 21
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India databank Mar 24
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Mexico databank Mar 25
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Panama databank Jan 28
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Peru databank Mar 5
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Philippines databank Apr 8
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Poland databank Feb 26
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Russia Economics databank Apr 11
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South Africa databank Apr 7
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Turkey databank Dec 24
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Ukraine databank Mar 6
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Venezuela databank Feb 4
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR: CHINA’S OUTLOOK IN THE TIME OF TRADE WARS...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
GULF WEEKLY: US-Iran nuclear talks begin, Oman and Europe plan hydrogen corridor, Bahraini parliament calls for tariffs on US
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Apr 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil recovered to a two-week high of $67, and OPEC+ announced revised compensation cuts. * OPEC and the IEA both revised down both oil demand and supply forecasts due to US policies. * US-Iran nuclear talks in Oman seemed ...
Requiem for the fiscal framework
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Apr 2025
The federal government has sent the Budget Guidelines Bill (PLDO) for 2026 to Congress, outlining the broad contours of next year’s budget, as well as projecting public accounts through the middle of the next administration, in 2029.
Growth decline deepens
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 17 Apr 2025
February growth data confirms that the Dominican economy has entered a low-growth period. In February, estimated growth reached just 0.7% compared with February 2024. This adds to January's growth of only 2.2%, bringing cumulative growth for January and February to 1.5%. Once again the sharp decl...
NBU holds prime rate unchanged at 15.5% amid eased FX pressure
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Apr 2025
The NBU Board left the prime rate unchanged at 15.5% at today’s meeting, contrary to our expectations. Despite inflation accelerating in March to +1.5% m/m and +14.6% y/y, the NBU noted it sees some signs of easing, though it acknowledged that inflationary expectations remain high. Most likely, t...
MPC does the right thing, difficult road ahead
TURKEY · Report · 17 Apr 2025
At its meeting today, the MPC/CBRT raised the policy rate by 350 basis points to 46%, compared to the consensus expectations of no change. While not ruling out a hike, we had also thought that a pause was the more likely outcome. Along with the policy rate, the MPC increased the O/N lending rate ...
The Petrobras Board of Directors will discuss Unigel, the urgent status of the Amnesty Bill should be put to a vote after the long holiday, and the Special Committee on the income tax bill should be installed next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Apr 2025
Today, a meeting of the Petrobras Board of Directors is scheduled to decide on the situation of Unigel, a company that leased two fertilizer plants (Fafens) from the state-owned enterprise in 2019—one in Sergipe and another in Bahia—but ceased production in 2023. Next week, after the long holiday...
Bi-weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Apr 2025
Apr 3 National pipeline company: The volume of Kazakh oil transportation to Germany via the Druzhba oil pipeline in March reached 150K tons and increased by 50% compared to February. Ministry of Trade: US tariffs will affect less than 5% of Kazakhstan exports to the US. KMG: The heads of KMG and ...
Armenia: Opposition takes Gyumri in a potentially key milestone in Armenian politics
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 17 Apr 2025
As I anticipated, the Council of Elders of the second-largest city in Armenia was able yesterday to elect Vardan Ghukasyan (the leading candidate from the Communist party) as the new mayor of Gyumri. This is an important event in Armenian politics for at least three key reasons. First, it demonst...
The government wants its allies to withdraw their signatures for the urgent status of the amnesty bill, the PLDO sets the minimum wage at R$1,630 next year, and the Petrobras AGO is expected to reappoint its Board of Directors Chair
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Apr 2025
The fact that the opposition managed to gather enough signatures to bring the urgent status request for the Amnesty Bill to a vote in the House plenary has caused friction between the government and its allied base. This is because 146 members from allied parties signed the request. The governmen...
March CPI up 0.5%, annual inflation eases to 3.3%; rate cuts expected in H2 as disinflation builds
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Apr 2025
March CPI analysis: Housing and food continue to drive inflation The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March increased 0.5%, slightly above our expectations for a 0.4% increase. The annual rate decreased to 3.30% in March, from 3.40% in February 2025. The March CPI was driven primarily by a 0.9% inc...
Economic growth accelerated in 1Q25, the NBK keeps base rate unchanged
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Apr 2025
The National Bank of Kazakhstan kept its base rate unchanged at 16.5%, which looks unsurprising given that y-o-y inflation climbed to 10.0% in March amid m-o-m inflation at 1.3%-1.5% in the past two months. The NBK chairman, Mr. Suleimenov, quoted high inflation expectations as one of the main re...
The leader of the Liberal Party filed an urgent status request for the amnesty bill, the PLDO will be submitted today, and a presidential decree was issued today regulating the Full Payment of State Debts Program (Propag)
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Apr 2025
Yesterday, the leader of the Liberal Party (PL), Deputy Sóstenes Cavalcante (RJ), filed an urgent status request for the bill that grants amnesty to those involved in the events of January 8, 2023 (Bill 2858/22). The number of signatures in favor of the urgent status suggests that both the status...
It’s back
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Apr 2025
We foresee a return to triple-digit annual inflation in 2025 and identify several upside risks to our forecast numbers: U.S. oil sanctions policy, the effect of secondary tariffs to be applied to countries that buy Venezuelan oil, falling oil prices, adjustment measures adopted under the Economic...
Impeachment risk for President Boluarte rises; we expect slowdown to 2.3% in H2; global risks led Central Bank to extend its policy rate pause
PERU · Report · 15 Apr 2025
In this report, we discuss the risk of President Dina Boluarte facing impeachment in the final year of her presidential term; we then discuss recent economic performance, and argue that the economy will decelerate to 2.3% in H2; and finally we discuss the drivers that led the Board of the Banco C...
Economics: Current US tariff schedule significantly impacts Mexican exports and the broader economy
MEXICO · Report · 15 Apr 2025
President Trump’s recent announcement of a 90 day pause on his “reciprocal” tariffs left many countries with a 10% across-the-board rate for that period. Mexico was not included in the list of reciprocal tariffs, a development celebrated by Mexican authorities as an achievement. However, there ar...