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Trump’s victory is good for Orbán, but not necessarily good for Hungary
HUNGARY · Report · 21 Nov 2024

PM Orbán appeared to be greatly relieved, and even victorious, on the news of Trump’s reelection for US president. Below we argue that this result will likely raise his personal status significantly, whereas Mr. Trump’s economic and foreign policies are much less likely to favor Hungary. In do...

Rate unchanged, statement visibly more dovish
TURKEY · Report · 21 Nov 2024

The CBRT/MPC left the policy rate (one-week repo) unchanged at 50% at today’s meeting, in line with expectations. The statement (link here) turned visibly more dovish in our view, enhancing the probability of a December rate cut, assuming that November inflation does not badly surprise on the ups...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 21 Nov 2024

Fears of a new wave of military escalation in Ukraine were the main driver for the Russian FX market during the last two weeks. On the back of this, the exchange rate surpassed the R/$100 benchmark. The equity market also went down - by about 3%. Investors are also concerned by the CBR’s another ...

Lula and Xi Jinping sign various bilateral agreements, the PT requested the shelving of the January 8 amnesty bill, and the CCJ will hold another public hearing on Tax Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Nov 2024

Yesterday, Presidents Lula and Xi Jinping signed a joint declaration after their countries concluded 37 bilateral agreements. Yesterday, the Workers' Party (PT) submitted a request to the President of the Lower House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), to shelve the bill that would grant amnesty to those convi...

Beijing tries again
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 20 Nov 2024

Beijing has once again—after several earlier attempts—tried to strengthen the economy through a stimulus package. This package, at 10 trillion yuan, is larger than previous attempts but is unlikely to achieve the desired turnaround in the economy to halt the decline in property sales and the rise...

No base rate cut in November either, unsurprisingly
HUNGARY · In Brief · 19 Nov 2024

The Monetary Council left the MNB base rate unchanged at 6.5% at the monthly rate-setting meeting held today. As vice governor Virág said after the meeting, there was one member who proposed a 25 bps rate cut, but that was voted down by an overwhelming majority of decision-makers. This result was...

The Senate voted on the new rules for the parliamentary fund transfers, the House approved the bill on the Brazilian Payment System, and discussions on Tax Reform are ongoing
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Nov 2024

The Senate concluded yesterday the vote on the complementary bill that defines new rules for parliamentary fund transfers. The text will now have to go through further analysis in the Lower House. Yesterday, the House approved a bill redefining the rules for the operation, supervision, and risk m...

Upcoming webinar - Brazil political landscape and outlook
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Nov 2024

What are the consequences of the explosion at the Brazilian Supreme Court? How will Haddad’s battle for spending cuts play out? What can be expected from the upcoming legislative and political agenda? Join us for our live Zoom Webinar featuring GlobalSource Partners' Brazil Political Analyst L...

Economics: High risk of tariffs and trade sanctions generates investment uncertainty
MEXICO · Report · 19 Nov 2024

The victory of Donald Trump, together with the Republican majority in both houses of the U.S. Congress, indicates that it is practically a given that there will be pressure to threaten to impose tariffs on Mexico. The aim would be to force the Mexican government to toughen measures to prevent the...

Politics: The challenges facing the new PAN leadership
MEXICO · Report · 18 Nov 2024

On Sunday, November 11, the PAN, Mexico’s main opposition party, renewed its leadership, with its newly elected president, Jorge Romero, promising a thoroughgoing reform. However, the obstacles are formidable, beginning with Romero’s very diminished credibility. His reputation has been tarnished ...

Fiscal measures under review and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Nov 2024

The government is finally expected to announce fiscal adjustment measures between Thursday and Friday, November 21 and 22. President Lula will attend the G20 meeting in Rio de Janeiro on Monday and Tuesday, November 18 and 19. On Wednesday, November 20, Xi Jinping will pay an official visit to Br...

No Relief
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Nov 2024 · 1 response

Economic activity in the third quarter remained robust, although less dynamic compared to the first half of the year. Our forecasts puts GDP growth close to 0.8% in the third quarter, once again above potential. Consequently, and aligned with a continuously declining unemployment rate, we expect ...

How will a contraction in China’s trade surplus affect the economy?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 18 Nov 2024

Special points to highlight in this report: - As always, October data was mixed. While consumption growth may be picking up, it is still not enough to keep pace with slowing growth in production. The result was more CPI deflation and one of the biggest monthly trade surpluses in history. ...

Permission for limited long-range missile strikes vs. global security breakdown
UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Nov 2024

On Sunday morning, November 17, we received an alert that nearly 17 Russian strategic bombers were in the air preparing to launch dozens of cruise missiles. Such a big number of strategic bombers approaching launch sites usually means that hypersonic ballistic missile Kynzhal carriers Mig-31 will...

Lula will participate in the G20 meeting in Rio, he is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday, and the market awaits the announcements of the fiscal measures
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Nov 2024

President Lula will participate this Monday and Tuesday in the G20 meeting in Rio de Janeiro. On Wednesday, November 20, he is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Brasília. In the market, all eyes are on the announcement of measures related to the fiscal adjustment package. Some...

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