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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Construction declines slowed real GDP growth
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 12 Mar 2025

Economic activity recorded a significant slowdown in January. The y/y real GDP monthly growth rate was only 2.2%, less than half of the 5% average observed in 2024. The main explanation was the -7.3% contraction of the construction sector. Monthly inflation in February stood at 0.32%, while th...

One more president putting himself to shame
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 12 Mar 2025 · 2 responses

In Colombia, it is a presidential prerogative to incur in unforced errors precisely when they hurt the most. Namely, convoke a referendum or a plebiscite as a last resort to avoid losing face, and end up in the worst scenario of failing to get the referendum or plebiscite approved, losing face an...

Sequels of a surprise revocation
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 12 Mar 2025

The unexpected revocation of General License 41 through General License 41a with only 30 days granted for winding down has turned what was already looking like a tough year into a decidedly awful one. The country will suffer a 24-percent drop ($4 billion) in oil exports in 2025, followed by anoth...

Lula will launch payroll-deductible loans for the private sector today, the government is looking for funding sources for other programs, and Lula meets with Pacheco to discuss ministerial reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Mar 2025

President Lula will attend an event this today at the Planalto Palace to launch payroll-deductible loans for the private sector. The new private payroll-deductible loan program will deduct installment payments directly from employees' paychecks using eSocial, the government system on which compan...

Inflation rose further in February: an administrative ceiling comes on retail trade margins for a set of basic food items
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Mar 2025

Headline CPI-inflation in February was reported at 0.8% mom, 5.6% yoy this morning, the latter up from 5.5% yoy in January. Core inflation looked bad as well, at 0.6% mom, 6.2% yoy, the latter up from 5.8% in January. Non-fuel inflation, which we estimate from the official KSH data, was 0.9% mom,...

Gleisi Hoffman gave her first speech as Minister of Institutional Relations, the government’s legislative agenda does not have many points of contention, and congressional leaders will meet to discuss the 2025 Budget
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Mar 2025

All eyes were focused on Gleisi Hoffmann’s first speech as the Minister of Institutional Relations. As president of the Workers’ Party (PT), Gleisi had previously adopted a highly critical stance toward various agendas advocated by the economic team. When looking at the government’s announced age...

Economics: Clock ticking on Trump’s rolling tariff deadlines as Mexico’s trade with China could become a new source of pressure
MEXICO · Report · 11 Mar 2025

Although Trump decided at the beginning of March to pause his blanket 25% tariffs for another month, there remains a high probability that the steel and aluminum tariffs that Washington has planned to go into effect this Wednesday, March 12, will materialize. Meanwhile, there remains the threat t...

Israel’s budget deficit declines further in February; Treasury expected to slow bond issuance
ISRAEL · In Brief · 11 Mar 2025

The Ministry of Finance announced yesterday that Israel recorded a fiscal deficit of NIS 6.1 billion ($1.7 billion) in February. The trailing 12-month deficit fell to 5.3% of GDP, down from 5.8% in January, 6.9% in December, and a peak of 8.5% in September 2024. The decline is primarily attribute...

The cost of governance increases and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Mar 2025

Expected this week: President Lula (PT) swears in Alexandre Padilha (PT-SP) as Minister of Health and Gleisi Hoffmann (PT-PR) as Minister of Institutional Relations. Party leaders discuss the vote on the 2025 Federal Budget. In the Lower House, negotiations continue over the leadership of the Per...

Politics: Sheinbaum moves ahead with her legislative agenda, albeit with problems on the home front
MEXICO · Report · 10 Mar 2025

Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration is moving full steam ahead on legislative bills. While the President constantly claims continuity with AMLO, she has also struck out on her own with a series of legislative proposals that are not part of her predecessor’s legacy. These include the Infonavit hous...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Mar 2025 · 1 response

OVERVIEW HARVESTS OF A PT ADMINISTRATION FOR THE PT The devastating decline in Lula’s popularity consolidates his worst moment across all his terms, with the gap between those who disapprove (49%) surpassing, for the first time, those who approve (47%) of his government. According to data f...

Gleisi Hoffman will take over as Minister of Institutional Relations today, the PP will meet to discuss its position toward the government, and the Foreign Trade Chamber will meet to discuss reducing import taxes on food
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Mar 2025

Today, Federal Deputy Gleisi Hoffmann (PT-PR) will take over the Secretariat for Institutional Relations, responsible for political coordination between the Executive and Legislative branches. A summit of the Progressive Party (PP) is scheduled to decide the party’s stance toward the government a...

Will new Finance Minister Fayval Williams's budget turn around the JLP’s political fortunes?
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 10 Mar 2025

In her budget speech tomorrow afternoon, March 11, new Finance Minister Fayval Williams has the very difficult job of crafting an election-winning budget within the confines of Jamaica’s fiscal rules and recent weak economic performance. So far, she has strongly signaled that she will resist elec...

Syria erupts, everyone frets
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Mar 2025 · 1 response

In the brief time span of 72 hours, Western Syria erupted in horrendous violence, with a free for all between Assad loyalists, Alawites, Sunnis and HTS and loosely affiliated radical jihadis, as the death toll reached a reported 1K by late Sunday. While sketchy news flow from cities like Latakia ...

Chilean presidential elections: Tohá in, Bachelet out
CHILE · In Brief · 09 Mar 2025

With the end of the antipodean summer comes the start of the school year in Chile. The days get shorter, traffic gets worse, and presidential candidates begin to position themselves. While on the center-right Evelyn Matthei has been a fairly official candidate – and has been leading in the polls ...

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