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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Maduro calls for peace—with one eye on opportunity
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Jul 2025

It is too soon to predict the impact of the Iran–Israel ceasefire announced by President Trump on June 23. In any case, developments in the conflict point to a geopolitical realignment the effects of which will reach far beyond the Middle East. Even if Iran chooses to escalate, it will do so from...

Monetary policy rate remains unchanged in July 2025
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 01 Jul 2025

The Central Bank decided to keep the monetary policy interest rate unchanged at 5.75% annually for the seventh consecutive month. The rate for the overnight liquidity expansion facility (1-day repos) also remains at 6.25% annually, while the rate for overnight remunerated deposits continues at 4....

Politics: The concentration of power and populism in the 4T have resulted in little effectiveness in economic development and security
MEXICO · Report · 01 Jul 2025

In her nine months in office, Claudia Sheinbaum’s priorities have been aimed at a) concretizing AMLO’s “Plan C” of enshrining the 4T’s policies in the constitution, thereby altering the country’s political regime and further concentrating power in the presidency and b) limiting the damage caused ...

The IOF battle heads to the Supreme Court and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Jun 2025

The repeal of the IOF decree by Congress continues to resonate. The government is seeking a solution to offset the lost revenue. Lawmakers are staging a protest against Provisional Measure (MP) No. 1,303/25, which taxes financial investments and raises taxes on bets and fintechs. The government i...

Essential CIS Politics: July 2025
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 30 Jun 2025

- Impact on Russia and Ukraine of the Iran-Israel conflict: an analysis. - Ukraine launches a daring attack on Russian strategic bombers. - Russia’s Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov alerts of risk of recession. - Armenia in political crisis as Pashinyan squares off agains...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Jun 2025

OVERVIEW IN SEARCH OF POLARIZATION  With his popularity in steady decline, loss of support in Congress, and Bolsonaro’s candidacy, the so-called "evil“, increasingly unlikely, Lula has decided to dust off the old rhetoric of the struggle between the rich and the poor, or the “upper floor” ...

Economics: Mexican economy expected to stall further this year but could begin to see some minimal growth heading into 2026
MEXICO · Report · 30 Jun 2025

What are the factors behind Mexico's ongoing economic slowdown? Can a strong peso endure? Will there be a satisfactory ending to free trade and foreign investment in Mexico? Those are a few of the questions we attempt to answer in this week’s Economic Outlook as we summarize our macroeconomic fra...

Bolsonaro held a rally yesterday, the government continues to discuss alternatives to the IOF, and the government will launch the Sustainable Car program this week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Jun 2025

Yesterday, former President Jair Bolsonaro held a rally in São Paulo in support of an amnesty bill. The crowd, estimated between 16,000 and 17,000 people, was one of the smallest turnouts at an event organized by the former president. In the coming days, the government may decide what measures to...

June economic updates and some insights into the performance of Polish manufacturing
POLAND · Report · 30 Jun 2025

Poland’s economy in mid-2025 is walking a fine line: inflation is cooling but remains sticky, public investment is accelerating even as private capital lags, and manufacturing is showing faint signs of recovery despite mixed sentiment and faltering export demand. In this report, we look at the la...

Desperate for any minor win, Putin escalates terror tactics
UKRAINE · Report · 30 Jun 2025

While peace talks lead nowhere, we’ve shifted our attention back to the front lines—where developments on the ground have a real impact in deterring Russian aggression, unlike the endless cycle of negotiations. As of this writing, reported Russian losses in Ukraine have exceeded 1 million kill...

Chile's Presidential Primaries: The Spectre of Communism
CHILE · In Brief · 29 Jun 2025

In the introduction to the Communist Manifesto, Karl Marx announced that “a spectre is haunting Europe”. Marx had designed Communism to be a threat to the established order, and by the time he wrote his treatise, the established order was worried. Because early Communism stuck to its revolutionar...

Budapest Pride march took place without problems yesterday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Jun 2025

On Saturday, June 28, the annual Pride March of the LGBTQ community took place in Budapest, despite the government's express will and a previously announced police ban on the event. The march attracted between 50-100k participants, making the event the biggest Pride ever, and the second largest s...

A historic week in Turkish politics
TURKEY · Report · 29 Jun 2025 · 1 response

It is cliché, but this is going to be a truly historic week in Turkish politics. On Monday (June 30), an Ankara court will hear arguments from plaintiffs and defendants on whether there was fraud in CHP’s next-to-last grand convention, when Ozgur Ozel replaced Kemal Kilicdaroglu. In bad-case s...

Government downscales growth targets
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 28 Jun 2025

The Philippine Government, through the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) a few days ago, reviewed and updated its medium-term macroeconomic assumptions, growth targets and fiscal program for this year and the next two years 2026 and 2027. Given the increased uncertainties and recen...

Gunning for a risk-adjusted Israel-Iran war scenario
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 28 Jun 2025

Based on the recent assessment by his economic team, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr was reported to have “downplayed” the expected fallout from the Israel-Iran ballistic war compounded by the US bombing of three nuclear facilities in Iran. Manageable, he said, and “so far, there is no s...

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