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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Good enough to start?
TURKEY · Report · 03 Dec 2024

Consumer prices rose by 2.2%, m/m, in November, slightly higher than the consensus forecast of around 2%, and our forecast of just under 2%. The 12-month rate nevertheless eased to 47.1% from 48.6% in October. Monthly domestic PPI inflation posted a modest increase of 0.7%, with the 12-month rate...

The STF concludes its ruling on parliamentary fund transfers, Lira meets with party leaders to discuss the fiscal package, and Braga may meet with Haddad to discuss the Tax Reform bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Dec 2024

Today, the Supreme Federal Court (STF) concludes its ruling on the execution of parliamentary fund transfers. Yesterday, Justice Flavio Dino decided to authorize the resumption of payments for these transfers. Today, the President of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), meets with party leaders to dis...

Fast track for the fiscal package and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Dec 2024

The fiscal package on spending cuts begins its analysis in the House. Beyond the content itself, the government is mobilizing to expedite the legislative process by shortening timelines. Eduardo Braga may present his report on the bill regulating the Tax Reform. The Mercosur Summit takes place th...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Dec 2024

OVERVIEW PT TESTS ITS POWER, AND THE COUNTRY BEARS THE COST Even after emerging significantly weakened from the municipal elections, as discussed in the November Fotografia, PT (Workers’ Party) imposed its vision on the final design of the fiscal package, increasing the risks and costs in t...

Politics: Constitutional reforms pose a direct threat to democratic governance
MEXICO · Report · 02 Dec 2024

Barely two months into Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration, it is clear that Morena and its coalition partners are determined to move full speed ahead with the 4T's proposed constitutional reforms, actively backed by the new president. Taken as a whole, the 20 reforms proposed by AMLO (18 constitu...

The Lower House begins analysis of the government’s fiscal package, the rapporteur of the Tax Reform bill may submit a draft of his report, and the Senate begins analysis of the appointments to the Central Bank
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Dec 2024

The fiscal package measures announced by the government last week begin to be discussed in the Lower House this week. Last Friday, November 29, the government leader in the House, José Guimarães (PT-CE), presented a complementary bill (PLP No. 210/24) and an ordinary bill (PL No. 4,614/24) for th...

Economics: Indicators point to further slowdown, as anticipated
MEXICO · Report · 02 Dec 2024

Indicators were released during November that point to a more pronounced slowdown at the end of this year. Gross fixed capital formation fell an annual 0.9% in August, the first decline since February 2021, with construction experiencing a notable decrease. Industrial production remained weak in ...

De-escalation is deflationary
ISRAEL · Report · 02 Dec 2024

1. The ceasefire in the North will help moderate inflationary pressure. 2. This will support monetary easing commencing in Q2 2025. 3. Recent economic indicators point to deceleration due to the escalation in the North. 4. The MPC expressed satisfaction with the fiscal framework for 2025.

The Hardest Thing
VENEZUELA · Report · 02 Dec 2024

The hardest thing to forecast today is in what kind of climate Maduro’s apparently inevitable inauguration takes place on January 10. The state security apparatus is on high alert, and tensions are rising, as Nicolás Maduro's swearing-in ceremony approaches. Donald Trump’s and Marco Rub...

Moody's changed the outlook of its Baa2 sovereign debt rating to Negative from Stable
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Dec 2024

This happened on Friday, November 29, at Moody's last review date set for this year:This was no surprise at all. Hungary has had a split rating from the top three agencies for quite a while, and against the worse ratings granted by Fitch Ratings and mainly S&P, Moody's appeared to be quite genero...

Slowing inflationary pressures likely to support monetary loosening
ISRAEL · In Brief · 01 Dec 2024

Geopolitics: Finally, some good news. The ceasefire with Hezbollah seems to be holding, despite some Israeli attacks due to Hezbollah violations. It is still difficult to assess the likelihood of calm being maintained, but we think so, as the war in Syria will take precedence for Hezbollah and Ir...

Signs, bridging fissures
CHILE · Report · 29 Nov 2024 · 1 response

The seasonally-adjusted IMACEC saw a steep monthly contraction in September, primarily due to an unusually high concentration of holidays. This year’s atypical seasonality is particularly evident in manufacturing data. Beyond monthly volatility, the underlying trends point to stagnation. While 12...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi budget, KSA and RAK upgraded, UAE Q2 GDP, Lebanon ceasefire
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 29 Nov 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The OPEC+ meeting was postponed until Thursday, suggesting differences on tapering cuts. * Trump’s Treasury Secretary pick was well received by markets, but wants to hike oil by 3m b/d. * The Saudi budget sees tax revenue...

Essential CIS Politics: December 2024
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 29 Nov 2024

- Trump’s possible future effects on the CIS examined - Russia updates nuclear doctrine in response to Western weapons targeting its territory - Government rides out protests in Georgia - COP 29 in Azerbaijan provokes new diplomatic row with France

Kazakhstan macro: Budget 2025 looks safer now with a weaker tenge
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 29 Nov 2024

A couple of days ago, Majilis (the lower chamber of the Kazakh parliament) reportedly approved the updated version of the republican 2025 budget along with the indicative budgets for several following years. Legislators also amended the revenues and expenditures of the 2024 Kazakh republican budg...

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