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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economic growth remained strong in November
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 16 Dec 2025

Recent monthly updates from the Bureau of National Statistics show that economic growth in November stayed strong, matching the pace of previous months. The short-term indicator, a monthly proxy for economic activity, grew by 9.1% y-o-y in 11M25, the same rate recorded in 9M25 and 8M25. Transport...

The forward guidance has been changed at today's Monetary Council
HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 Dec 2025

The Council's last regular monthly rate-setting meeting in 2025 was held today. On this occasion, the Q4 inflation report was also discussed, the details of which will be presented by the MNB staff the day after tomorrow.On this occasion, the base rate and the corridor were left unchanged at 6.5%...

The Lower House set this week’s voting agenda, the STF approved the resumption of the investigation into the Banco Master fraud scheme, and the STF is expected to vote on the demarcation of indigenous lands
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Dec 2025

Following a meeting of party leaders, the Lower House set this week’s voting agenda. The agenda includes a bill providing for a linear cut in tax incentives, which is a priority for the Ministry of Finance. Yesterday, Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Dias Toffoli ordered the resumption of inve...

Webinar replay - Chile election briefing: The next administration
CHILE · Report · 16 Dec 2025

After the election of Chile's next president, what do the results reveal about the electorate? Which goals will the incoming administration prioritize? What challenges are ahead for the president-elect? Watch the replay of the final installment of our Chile Election Briefing webinar series fea...

Public opinion on ‘peace deal’: territorial concessions strongly rejected
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Dec 2025

We do not cover much the new wave of ‘peace deal’ efforts because Ukrainians are very skeptical of the process. Vladimir Putin’s goal is to dismantle the Ukrainian state, and his involvement in Trump’s ‘peace deal’ talks is simply aimed at delaying a new wave of sanctions, driving a wedge between...

Will global trade fracture?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 16 Dec 2025

Special points to highlight in this report: - Once again, China’s data releases this month have been disappointing. Even as the market expected very weak growth in November’s retail sales of just 2.9%, in fact they came in much lower, at 1.3%. Industrial output growth also disappointed, comin...

Economics: A stalling 2025 economy foreshadows a slow recovery in subsequent years
MEXICO · Report · 15 Dec 2025 · 1 response

The Mexican economy is sputtering, as underscored by GDP slipping -0.2% yoy in the third quarter, leaving its average performance through September at a paltry 0.4%. Were it not for export growth, the Mexican economy would have fallen into recession during 2025. Even as exports and foreign invest...

Politics: At year-end, Sheinbaum has high marks in general but low scores on specifics
MEXICO · Report · 15 Dec 2025

President Claudia Sheinbaum has gotten through her first year in office and the end of 2025 with remarkably high approval ratings. Yet major and growing problems have taken their toll in terms of public support for her specific policies, to say nothing of governance risks. Although the last few ...

The race for the strategic vote in 2026 and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Dec 2025

This is the final week of legislative activity in the National Congress before the holiday recess and it comes with a packed agenda. In the Lower House, highlights include the review of the IBS Management Committee, the linear cut to tax benefits, and the Anti-Faction Law. In the Senate, the Sent...

Unanchored: Venezuela returns to hyperinflation territory
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Dec 2025

Inflation rebounds to 20 percent in December, driven by simultaneous acceleration in the official and parallel exchange rates. Although fiscal stimulus typically eases at year-end, limited forex supply—amid weak oil prices and high external geopolitical volatility—reduces the central bank’s room ...

Ready for a year of two halves?
TURKEY · Forecast · 15 Dec 2025 · 1 response

In this last quarterly/forecast report of the year, we provide a quick overview of the macroeconomics of 2025 and share our preliminary baseline scenario for 2026, the latter including our political risk map for the year. 2025 has played out broadly as expected, with inflation now likely to fi...

What lies ahead
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Dec 2025

The slowdown of the economy in 2025, reflected in growth around 2.3% for this year versus 3.4% last year, should continue in 2026. In our central scenario, output expansion next year should be around 1.8%, still reflecting the effect of higher interest rates on domestic demand. Indeed, the combi...

CIS ESSENTIAL POLITICS: December 1-15
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 15 Dec 2025

- EU freezes indefinitely Russian assets in Europe that could be used as collateral for key financial assistance to Kyiv. - Witkoff and Kushner meet Putin for talks in Moscow. - Russia captures Pokrovsk and Siversk, surrounding Mirnograd—Ukraine counterattacks in Kupiansk.

Kast wins
CHILE · In Brief · 15 Dec 2025

Many observers ask how it is that a country that six years ago was marching on the streets and four years ago elected a young leftist firebrand has now elected a conservative with a record of supporting the Pinochet dictatorship. One possible answer lies in the rejection of a highly unpopular and...

This is the final week of legislative activity before the recess, the House may vote on the tax benefits bill, and Lula will attend the Mercosur meeting on December 20
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Dec 2025

This is the final week of legislative activity in the National Congress, with a packed agenda. According to the President of Congress, Davi Alcolumbre (União–AP), Congress may vote on the 2026 Federal Budget on Wednesday or Thursday. The Lower House may vote on a bill providing for a 10% across-t...

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