GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The NBU has released a new Inflation Report, which marks a significant shift in tone compared to what we've seen from the central bank previously. The first point relates to the worsened inflation outlook already flagged in the NBU's communications following the Board's decision on the key policy...

GULF WEEKLY: US strikes paused, Iran-Oman near Hormuz terms, UAE posts strong Q1 non-oil GDP

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 Aug 2026

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Trump called off a major weekend attack on Iran after intervention from MBS and other Gulf states. * The depletion of US missiles and interceptors may also be a factor limiting US attack plans. * Iran and Oman say they ar...

Investigations into Lula’s son and former aide continue, Minister Boulos will meet with unions to discuss the end of the 6x1 work schedule, and Congress will resume activity next week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Aug 2026

A meeting with the Ministry of Justice and the Office of the Attorney General has been scheduled to discuss the Federal Police’s autonomy to investigate allegations involving fraud at the INSS, Brazil’s social security agency. The issue has generated significant attention because the investigatio...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Pashinyan’s referendum traps—heads he loses, tails he loses more

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 07 Aug 2026

Armenia’s newly elected National Assembly convened this week following the disputed June 7 vote. As expected, the opposition took its seats, perhaps mindful of the limited gains delivered by the Georgian opposition’s parliamentary boycott. Alongside mounting pressure from Russian trade restric...

Lost horizon

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Aug 2026

Once again, there was no surprise in the decision regarding the target for the Selic rate, which, we believe, may be an important part of the current monetary policy problem. The Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) reduced the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 p.p., to 14% per year, and “understands ...

June industry, retail sales and trade data not quite as bad as it looks at first glance

HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Aug 2026

This morning's KSH report of the June industrial output and retail sales data has been assessed as unfavourable by some local analysts. This judgement is based on the fact that industry shrank 1.4% mom and retail turnover fell 0.4% mom, both volume terms and sda basis. But indeed, these figures a...

Flávio Bolsonaro has announced Federal Congressman Alfredo Gaspar as his running mate, Lula argued that the government should lower interest rates, and Congress will hold a concentrated voting session next week

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Aug 2026

Flavio Bolsonaro has announced Federal Congressman Alfredo Gaspar (PL-AL) as his running mate. Gaspar is from Brazil's Northeast and served as the rapporteur of the congressional inquiry into the INSS scandal. Yesterday, President Lula (PT) argued that the government should find an alternative to...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 06 Aug 2026

The ruble has slipped over 3% in the past two weeks - a move that might seem healthy from a macroeconomic standpoint but feels less so on the ground. Several factors could explain this. Export revenues for Russian companies have probably dropped amid volatile oil prices and lower volumes of refin...

The Trump administration revoked the visa of Brazil’s ambassador to the U.S., Justice Dino authorized the opening of a new investigation into Lulinha, and Flávio Bolsonaro may announce his running mate

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Aug 2026

The Donald Trump administration revoked the visa of Brazil’s ambassador to the United States in retaliation for Brazil’s refusal last month to grant visas to two U.S. diplomats who intended to visit the country ahead of the upcoming presidential election. The Brazilian government accused the Trum...

Improved mood in Washington insufficient to combat winter of ballistic strikes

UKRAINE · Report · 04 Aug 2026

Sentiment within Washington's ruling circles appears to be gradually shifting in Ukraine's favor. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s July 28 meeting in Washington with U.S. President Donald Trump was the first to unfold amid relatively positive sentiment, and information backdrop. There is bipartisan...

Party negotiations continue to intensify over the next two days, the Federal Police asked the STF to open another investigation into Lula’s son, and the Copom meets to decide on the benchmark interest rate

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Aug 2026

Today is the second-to-last day for political parties to hold their national conventions. Negotiations are expected to intensify over the next two days. Senator Tereza Cristina (PP-MS) said yesterday that she still believes there is a possibility of being chosen as the vice-presidential running m...

Paks nuclear power plant is almost fully turned off, but economic impact is likely to be limited

HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Aug 2026

As we reported a few days ago, Central Europe, and indeed the western part of the continent as well, is suffering from a severe drought, combined with unusually high peak daily air temperatures. Over the last few days, water levels in the Danube river have fallen to about half a meter lower than ...

Current account turned positive in 2Q26 and could stay in green in 2026 as a whole

KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 04 Aug 2026 · 1 response

The current account moved into surplus in 2Q26, hitting about $3.0 bln after a $2.0 bln deficit in 1Q26, bringing the 1H26 surplus to roughly $1.0 bln. This is a sharp turnaround from the $3.6 bln deficit in 1H25 and the $12.5 bln shortfall for all of 2025. In 4Q25, the deficit widened to $5.2 bl...

Weekly report, August 3, 2026: Markets remain resilient despite geopolitical uncertainty

ISRAEL · Report · 03 Aug 2026

The weekend was dominated by reports that the United States was preparing strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure, including power plants. The prospect of attacks on critical energy facilities pushed oil prices higher and increased concerns that Israel could be drawn into the war. However, P...

Economics: July data reveal pockets of recovery but multiple vulnerabilities on the economic front

MEXICO · Report · 03 Aug 2026

Mexico's economy enters the second half of 2026 with a headline growth figure that overstates the strength of the underlying recovery. The second-quarter rebound rests heavily on volatile components—agriculture, mining, wholesale trade, and an unusually large jump in residential construction that...