GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

BCB’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) opted once again for a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the Selic target rate, from 14.00% to 13.75% per year, as expected. It also chose to keep the statement that followed the meeting virtually unchanged, itself an indication that it intends to maintain...

The threat of nature

ECUADOR · Report · 17 Sep 2026

Experts from the European School of Political and Social Sciences (ESPOL) forecast there is a 75% probability that the severity of El Niño 2026 will reach the level of that of 1997-1998. In that event, losses amounted to 15% of GDP, affecting mainly productive sectors such as agriculture, livesto...

The STF crisis continues, criticism of the Supreme Court ranked among the highest-engagement content on Brazilian social media, and five presidential polls are expected to be released today

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Sep 2026

There were strong reactions from both the government and the opposition on the day after the Supreme Federal Court’s (STF) proceedings involving Alexandre de Moraes. On the government side, President Lula said he was outraged by what is happening. The opposition, meanwhile, was unhappy with Just...

How China resolved its bad debt in the 2000s

CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 Sep 2026

Special points to highlight in this report: * To no one’s surprise, domestic demand continued to weaken in August even as manufacturing and exports remained strong. * China plans to solve excess capacity by shifting investment into high-tech industries, but this is unlikely to work...

BIST in the throes of its biggest crisis

TURKEY · Report · 17 Sep 2026

After dropping a whopping 6% in Wednesday’s trading, Borsa Istanbul main index BIST-100 regained its composure Thursday morning, gaining 2% by 11 am . Yet, the scandal that triggered yesterday’s harrowing selloff had not passed. This post, written as of 11 am Turkish time, shares some preliminar...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Sep 2026

A new round of escalation in the Middle East pushed up oil prices, Urals went above $105 per barrel, the first time since May. The latter had helped the USD/RUB to stabilize within the USD/RUB84-85 range. Given the high level of oil price, we expect the overall amount of purchasing of currency by...

Israel’s H1 current account deficit and a technical note on Nvidia and BOP accounting

ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 Sep 2026

Balance of payments data released yesterday showed a USD 0.5bn current account deficit in Q2, following a revised deficit of around USD 0.8bn in Q1. This represents a significant change from 2025, when Israel recorded a current account surplus of around USD 8.9bn. The goods and services balance r...

Dominican Republic bond buyback

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 16 Sep 2026

The Dominican government yesterday announced an offer to repurchase U.S. dollar-denominated sovereign bonds carrying a 5.95% coupon and maturing in 2027, with US$1.7 billion currently outstanding. The offer sets a purchase price of US$1,006.25 per US$1,000 principal amount, plus accrued interest ...

The STF postponed deliberations on whether to investigate Justice Moraes, Lula tries to distance himself from the STF crisis, and the Copom will decide on the new benchmark interest rate today

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Sep 2026

As expected, Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) postponed its decision on whether to open an investigation into Justice Alexandre de Moraes. The proceedings were suspended after Justice Flávio Dino requested additional time to review the case. Under the Court’s internal rules, Dino’s request fo...

August CPI rises 0.7%, annual inflation remains at 1.5%

ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Sep 2026

The reading is good news for the Bank of Israel, although we still expect rates to remain unchanged through year-end. See our updated CPI and interest rate forecasts at the end of the report.Israel's August CPI rose by 0.7% m/m, slightly below our 0.8% forecast, while annual inflation remained un...

Essential CIS Politics: September 2 - 15, 2026

CIS POLITICS · Report · 15 Sep 2026

Key topics: -Russia makes steady progress in Ukraine, although a Ukrainian counterattack retakes half of Lyman. -Russia prepares to return the nuclear-powered cruiser Admiral Nakhimov to service after repairs that began in the late 1990s. -US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent meets Russia...

Important government and MNB decisions are coming: one step closer to euro-convergence?

HUNGARY · Report · 15 Sep 2026

An introductory period for the Tisza government ended in August. The three most important Fidesz-appointed top public officials, who represented a permanent threat to government activities, have been replaced, and conditions for EU funding have also been met, opening the way to the overwhelming m...

Less foreign exchange, more pressure

VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Sep 2026

August brought a pause in the inflation acceleration of June–July, but it did not dispel the fragility of the foreign exchange balance. Monthly inflation fell to 9 percent from 20 percent in July, in line with slower depreciation of the official exchange rate and the seasonal moderation in fiscal...

The STF begins deliberations on whether to investigate Justice Moraes, the latest poll showed a sharp increase in public concern over corruption, and Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are now statistically tied among women

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Sep 2026

Today, starting at 10:00 a.m. local time, Brazil’s Federal Supreme Court (STF) will begin deliberations on whether to authorize an investigation into Justice Alexandre de Moraes’s relationship with former banker Daniel Vorcaro. A Quaest poll released yesterday showed a sharp increase in public co...

The bill has come due

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 14 Sep 2026

The external backdrop was complicated by two important developments that affected short-term interest rates and, more importantly, long-term rates. First, the continuation of the conflict in the Persian Gulf, far more persistent than expected. Although it is in the economic interest of both si...