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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economics: A stalling 2025 economy foreshadows a slow recovery in subsequent years
MEXICO · Report · 15 Dec 2025

The Mexican economy is sputtering, as underscored by GDP slipping -0.2% yoy in the third quarter, leaving its average performance through September at a paltry 0.4%. Were it not for export growth, the Mexican economy would have fallen into recession during 2025. Even as exports and foreign invest...

Politics: At year-end, Sheinbaum has high marks in general but low scores on specifics
MEXICO · Report · 15 Dec 2025

President Claudia Sheinbaum has gotten through her first year in office and the end of 2025 with remarkably high approval ratings. Yet major and growing problems have taken their toll in terms of public support for her specific policies, to say nothing of governance risks. Although the last few ...

The race for the strategic vote in 2026 and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Dec 2025

This is the final week of legislative activity in the National Congress before the holiday recess and it comes with a packed agenda. In the Lower House, highlights include the review of the IBS Management Committee, the linear cut to tax benefits, and the Anti-Faction Law. In the Senate, the Sent...

Unanchored: Venezuela returns to hyperinflation territory
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Dec 2025

Inflation rebounds to 20 percent in December, driven by simultaneous acceleration in the official and parallel exchange rates. Although fiscal stimulus typically eases at year-end, limited forex supply—amid weak oil prices and high external geopolitical volatility—reduces the central bank’s room ...

Ready for a year of two halves?
TURKEY · Forecast · 15 Dec 2025

In this last quarterly/forecast report of the year, we provide a quick overview of the macroeconomics of 2025 and share our preliminary baseline scenario for 2026, the latter including our political risk map for the year. 2025 has played out broadly as expected, with inflation now likely to fi...

What lies ahead
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Dec 2025

The slowdown of the economy in 2025, reflected in growth around 2.3% for this year versus 3.4% last year, should continue in 2026. In our central scenario, output expansion next year should be around 1.8%, still reflecting the effect of higher interest rates on domestic demand. Indeed, the combi...

CIS ESSENTIAL POLITICS: December 1-15
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 15 Dec 2025

- EU freezes indefinitely Russian assets in Europe that could be used as collateral for key financial assistance to Kyiv. - Witkoff and Kushner meet Putin for talks in Moscow. - Russia captures Pokrovsk and Siversk, surrounding Mirnograd—Ukraine counterattacks in Kupiansk.

Kast wins
CHILE · In Brief · 15 Dec 2025

Many observers ask how it is that a country that six years ago was marching on the streets and four years ago elected a young leftist firebrand has now elected a conservative with a record of supporting the Pinochet dictatorship. One possible answer lies in the rejection of a highly unpopular and...

This is the final week of legislative activity before the recess, the House may vote on the tax benefits bill, and Lula will attend the Mercosur meeting on December 20
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Dec 2025

This is the final week of legislative activity in the National Congress, with a packed agenda. According to the President of Congress, Davi Alcolumbre (União–AP), Congress may vote on the 2026 Federal Budget on Wednesday or Thursday. The Lower House may vote on a bill providing for a 10% across-t...

GULF WEEKLY: Oman upgraded, rates cut, SABIC quits Duqm project, STC advances in Yemen
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Dec 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The GCC mirrored the US -25bp cut; policy rates now range from 3.5% (Kuwait) to 4.5% (Bahrain). * Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi are pitching in $24bn to Paramount’s bid for Warner Bros. * Saudi non-oil GDP growth of 4...

Motta has been criticized for not terminating the mandates of some representatives, the Sentencing bill may be put to a vote, and next week is the last week of legislative activity before the recess
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Dec 2025

The President of the Lower House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos–PB), has come under criticism from both allies and opposition lawmakers over how the proceedings involving the possible removal of mandates have been handled. Next week will be marked by intense political negotiations in Brasília. It will...

Upcoming webinar - Chile election briefing: The next administration
CHILE · Report · 12 Dec 2025

Date: 15 Dec 2025 Time: 10:00 AM Eastern Time After the election of Chile's next president, what do the results reveal about the electorate? Which goals will the incoming administration prioritize? What challenges are ahead for the president-elect? Join us for the final installment of our ...

2026 CCA Outlook: The spotlight sharpens—and it lands on Yerevan
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Forecast · 12 Dec 2025

Without a doubt, the key political economy event in the Caucasus and Central Asia next year is the upcoming Parliamentary vote in Armenia next Jun. The elections are, of course, interesting not only for the academics and analytics of them, but also for their geo-economic and geopolitical implica...

Budget revenues under pressure as the ruble remains too strong
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Dec 2025

The Ministry of Finance announced that in 11M25, total federal budget revenues hit R32.9 trln, up 0.7% y-o-y. Oil and gas revenues dropped 22.4% to just R8.0 trln, while non-O&G revenues rose 11.3% to R24.9 trln. The government had initially forecast R10.9 trln in O&G revenues for the year but no...

NBU still holds rate at 15.5% with devaluation in focus
UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 Dec 2025

Despite easing consumer inflation, the NBU Board again left the prime rate unchanged at 15.5%, for the sixth time in a row. The NBU states explicitly that the stability of the national currency and the attractiveness of hryvnia-denominated financial instruments remain its priorities.  In November...

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