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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economics: A sputtering economy and a complex public finance outlook as the monetary policy spread narrows
MEXICO · Report · 03 Nov 2025

Data released in October shows the economy continues to spiral downward under the weight of declining productive investment and private consumption. The same weakness is reflected in the labor market, with declining numbers of formal sector jobs being somewhat offset by more people finding inform...

The Rio police operation remobilizes the right and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Nov 2025

The COP 30 Leaders’ Summit will take place in Belém on Thursday and Friday. Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has scheduled for this Tuesday, November 4, the installation of the Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPI) that will investigate organized crime in Brazil. The Senate may also vote on th...

Politics: PAN at the crossroads, seeking better fortunes with a relaunch and a new face, identity, and organizational style
MEXICO · Report · 03 Nov 2025

Mexico’s largest opposition political party — the PAN —appears to be realizing that it is in an existential crisis and needs a major shakeup, overhaul, and new identity. The evidence is overwhelming: party membership is down to 200,000, which contrasts with Morena’s campaign for 10 million new af...

Trade talks and fourth plenum end with a whimper
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 03 Nov 2025

Two important meetings—on China’s five-year plan and between Xi and Trump—have ended not with a bang but a whimper. Trump retrenched to pre-tariff trade agreements but there were no long-term structural changes or solutions to the underlying conflicts. Meanwhile, China’s Central Committee met for...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Nov 2025

TERMITES IN LULA’S WORKS FROM EUPHORIA TO HANGOVER – Just like termites, the truth is stubborn and eventually surfaces at the height of the party. Happily surfing the wave of Trump’s friendly gestures and a rise in popularity — despite still-high rejection — Lula’s “luck” once again became the m...

The last polls
CHILE · In Brief · 03 Nov 2025

It does not feel like electoral season in Chile. Historically, elections saw the country’s streets plastered (or littered) with political advertising. But the increasing domination of social media in politics has translated into much less money being spent on street signage. At the same time, man...

Three polls show a majority of Rio residents approve of the mega-operation against organized crime, the STF will review Bolsonaro’s appeals on Friday, and the Central Bank will decide on the benchmark interest rate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Nov 2025

In addition to the AtlasIntel poll released last Friday, October 31, three institutes – Quaest, Datafolha, and Paraná – published polls measuring how residents of Rio de Janeiro (RJ) view last Tuesday’s large-scale operation against organized crime in the Alemão and Penha complexes. The STF will ...

Upcoming webinar - Navigating an oil glut: Fiscal and rating risks for the Gulf
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Nov 2025

Date: 4 Nov 2025 Time: 10:00 AM Eastern Time What's next for the GCC in an environment of low oil prices but tight spreads? How will OPEC+ navigate market concerns about an oil supply glut? How are diversification efforts progressing? Can Gulf states keep their deficits and borrowing in check...

Israel’s economic conditions in Q3 2025: after Iran, before the ceasefire
ISRAEL · In Brief · 03 Nov 2025

As data for August and September 2025 begin to accumulate, we now have a clearer statistical picture of Israel’s economic performance in the third quarter. The key question we seek to answer is how the Israeli economy responded to the end of the military operation against Iran and whether the rec...

Better than expected, worse than it should be
TURKEY · Report · 03 Nov 2025

Consumer prices increased by a somewhat lower than expected 2.6%, m/m, in October, with the annual CPI inflation rate easing slightly to 32.9%, from 33.3% in September. Producer prices rose by 1.6%, m/m, as 12-month PPI inflation edged up modestly to 27%, from 26.6% a month earlier. The declin...

Who knows? Gauging the risk of U.S. intervention in Venezuela
VENEZUELA · Report · 03 Nov 2025

In the United States, different political camps seem to be converging on one key point: that Maduro’s ouster is part of the broader fight against drug trafficking and could justify military intervention. Although the U.S. troop buildup in the Caribbean has not disrupted cohesion within the Ven...

A quantum of quietude
TURKEY · Report · 02 Nov 2025

With no major developments in two market-relevant issues that the politics author follows, namely the assault on CHP and corporate raids, he starts with the topic, which is on the lips of every Turkish pundit. He writes about new tensions surfacing between governing partners with a distinct lack ...

Quick update on the refinery fire and US sanctions against Russia
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Nov 2025

MOL's refinery at Százhalombatta (called Dufi for short), the only one in Hungary, was hit by a major fire on October. It affected the biggest of the refinery's three distillation units, which represents about 40% of total capacity. A few days later, they started to gradually restart the unaffect...

GULF WEEKLY: Most cut rates, Saudi deficit widens but GDP accelerates, Saudi AI and renewables deals signed, UAE budget expands
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 31 Oct 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil eased to $64 as the market waits on OPEC+ and signs of the impact of Russia sanctions. * Gulf states mirrored the Fed’s rate cut, bar Kuwait, which has the lowest rate and a basket peg. * The GCC-UK FTA is expected to...

CIS Essential Politics: October 16-31
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 31 Oct 2025

- Russian strikes on Ukraine cause nationwide blackouts as winter looms. - Russia successfully tests Burevestnik, a nuclear-powered cruise missile with potentially unlimited range. - Failure to agree to a summit in Budapest leads the US to impose sanctions on Rosneft and Luko...

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