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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi deficit narrows and GDP accelerates, Oman records strong FDI, UK will recognize Palestine
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Aug 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * US tariffs on GCC states are remaining at 10%, providing a competitive edge on some other states. * The Saudi deficit narrowed to -3% of GDP in Q2, mainly due to a seasonal rise in tax revenue. * There was a record $36bn ...

Obstinate Petro risks blowing up public finances
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Aug 2025

The criminal trial of Álvaro Uribe—the most influential political figure in Colombia in the 21st century—has culminated in a ruling that could redefine the country’s relationship between law and power. After years of legal entanglements rooted in a 2012 complaint initiated by Uribe himself, Judge...

Economic growth reportedly decelerated in June, albeit available statistics were incomplete
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Aug 2025

Rosstat’s recent monthly statistical bulletin (with June data) looked unusual as the statistical agency didn’t publish basic sectors output change (its favorite monthly proxy for overall economic activity). It occurred for the first time since the agency started publishing this indicator. In 5M25...

Baseline Scenario Confirmed: U.S. Tariffs Exclude Chilean Copper Inputs
CHILE · In Brief · 01 Aug 2025

According to the official White House communication, the new tariff package imposes a 50% ad valorem duty on imports of certain semi-fabricated copper products (e.g., tubes, wires, rods, and sheets) and copper-intensive downstream goods (such as pipe fittings, cables, connectors, and electrical c...

The U.S. may call on Brazil to negotiate as the tariffs are set to take effect next week, both the government and the opposition are politicizing the tariffs issue, and Congress resumes work next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Aug 2025

According to reports in the press, Brazil is expected to be called upon to negotiate with the U.S. government. However, no date has been set. Both the government and the opposition are attempting to politically capitalize on the situation, each pushing their own agendas. Congress will resume acti...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Most frequently asked questions from the CCA Webinar
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 01 Aug 2025

In last week's CCA Webinar I focused on the political developments in the region, including Georgian Dream's chances of winning the local elections in October, Armenian PM Pashinyan's attack on the Armenian Apostolic Church, and the recent escalation of tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia. The...

The SA Reserve Bank cuts rates as inflation expectations continue to moderate
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 01 Aug 2025

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has once again announced that it is cutting the benchmark interest rate, its second consecutive reduction since May, and by another 25 basis points. The decision followed this week’s conclusion of the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) fourth meeting of the ye...

Essential CIS Politics: August 2025
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 01 Aug 2025

- Aeroflot grounded by massive cyberattack; Ukrainian group claims responsibility. - Russia—the first country in the world to recognize Taliban Afghanistan. - Russian armed forces drive a wedge between Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka. - Ukraine experiences unrest related to Zel...

Zelensky backs down in anti-corruption clash: reputation bruised, need for elections grows
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Aug 2025

After facing sharp criticism from Ukrainian civil society, noisy (though not massive) protests, and unprecedented pressure from European leaders, the European Commission, and IFIs, President Zelensky backed down from his attempt to undermine the independence of Ukraine’s anti-corruption instituti...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 31 Jul 2025

The CBR cut the key rate by 200 bps to 18% in line with market expectations. The regulator’s rhetoric was rather neutral, while many investors expected a more dovish tone. As a result, the OFZ yields contracted moderately. We think these expectations seemed unfounded, as the CBR had never sounded...

Inflation finally in its bounds around the target. Wages accelerate?
POLAND · In Brief · 31 Jul 2025

Today, Statistics Poland showed flash inflation numbers for July (they will be revised by mid-August). As expected, CPI went down from 4.1% y/y in June to 3.1% in July. While it was a sizeable change, and inflation finally got back to the permissible bounds of fluctuations around the target, the ...

The monetary policy interest rate remains unchanged
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 31 Jul 2025

The Central Bank announced that in August 2025, the monetary policy interest rate will remain unchanged at 5.75% annually. The rate of the permanent liquidity expansion facility (1-day repos) remains at 6.25% annually, while the overnight deposit rate continues at 4.50% annually. The monetary pol...

Sizing up the trouble
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 31 Jul 2025

In a decree published this Wednesday, President Donald Trump raised the tariff on Brazilian products to 50%. Attached to the decree was a list of 694 products that will be exempt from the new tariff, including items such as orange juice, petroleum derivatives, certain steel products, cellulose, a...

The pause continued
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 31 Jul 2025

As expected, the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) kept the benchmark interest rate target at 15% per year. At the same time, however, in a curious grammatical construction, it stated that: “If the expected scenario materializes, the Committee foresees a continuation of the inte...

The U.S. announced the list of products that will be subject to the 50% tariff, the U.S. also imposed sanctions on Justice de Moraes, and the Central Bank kept the benchmark interest rate at 15%
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Jul 2025

The United States has announced the list of Brazilian products that will be subject to a 50% tariff. The executive order included 694 exceptions, notably orange juice, pulp, and Embraer aircraft. The U.S. government also imposed sanctions on Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. In...

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